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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8327)	9/1/1999 9:48:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 15132

FLASH: Mailing date for Marketimer moved up one day to Sept 7 per below link. 208.238.102.36 P

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8327)	9/1/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa re<<<<Sentiment Part II ** One of the most amazing things this year took place today. The Put/Call ratio was .98!!!! This is by far the highest reading we have had this year. In fact, this was considered a very high reading even during the correction lows in Fall of 1998. It tells me that there are a lot of people taking action to protect their portfolios in in the face of the upcoming employment numbers.>>>>> I guess I can understand them since I came close to shorting some QQQ's today. It's a tough issue how to to figure what to make of these sentiment numbers lately. I see the 10 day moving average is also down to .69. An exit decision would be easier with booming sentiment numbers but I guess I'm not overly surprised since the sampling of advisory opinion in Barron's showed a lot of bearishness with Granville leading the way to predicted Armageddon. I imagine many technicians have been seeing a similar thing, the poor breadth, poor volume etc. I went back to look where sentiment was around the May time which Bob identifies as the first thrust into the area of the top and it was in the high to very high 60's so I guess if we're forming a final top since then and not really making great progress with mostly poor internals it might not be surprising that bullish sentiment is not booming ahead at this point. The more fundamental question would be have we had bear markets in the past without extreme bullish sentiment and how long before a bear signal does sentiment need to be extreme? If Bob is using 1976 as the bear model for what we may be facing now we did reach 90% Bulls/(bulls+bears at the time. On the other hand as sentiment approached and broke 70% many times during this bull Bob's model giving it only a 25% weighting never changed its bullish stance and at the most we generally saw just mild corrections if anything except perhaps last autumn. I would say given that sentiment is not wildly bearish at this time the factors of a tightening Fed with rising inflationary possibilities and valuations remaining near all time highs will prevail over a lack of extreme bullish sentiment Marc