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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8128)	9/2/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78820

I'll tell you, Mike, I know some pretty astute insurance analysts who thought "all the bad news is discounted" 25% above these levels. Be careful. If you are going to buy a stock with a chart like ORI with the intention of selling it if it reaches a new low I would simply ask why buy it to begin with? Sure, like Waste Management you can keep your loss to a point or so, but I would much rather build some conviction as to what the stock is worth, buy at a substantial discount to that, and then wait for the market to recognize the value. If I can't get conviction on the value (like Waste Management) there are plenty of other stocks to buy. If Waste Management goes to 30, fine, that's somebody else's gain - I did the work and concluded that the financials are so messed up they are of no use to me, and I am not going to buy a stock off a chart when the financials and size of the company two years ago bear no resemblance to the company I would be buying today (remember, Waste Management was not the surviving entity of the merger). I leave this one to speculators and to those few who really understand this business. I would focus my energy on McKesson if I were looking for bombed out stocks that are actually analyzable, if that's a word. JJC

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8128)	9/3/1999 2:30:00 AM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78820

Judging from the crushed stock prices of these stocks, I'd say that's a scary thought if by now it isn't already reflected Mike, my view is that after several years of laissez fair (sp?), State Farm - the sleeping giant - is gearing up for a marketshare war. They have the capital to make things ugly for quite a while. Maybe the analysts see this tidal wave coming, but I don't get that feeling. I think in the past week or two that maybe the light is starting to go on, but alot of them wont get it until the next several quarters of earnings in the industry come in soft. When State Farm puts on the full court press I can see all opponents making turnovers. Batten down the hatches, it's going to be a rough ride. FWIW, Shane