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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Baton who wrote (11515)	9/2/1999 9:13:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Well, today is the day I had planned to get back into some larger internets. . . looks like we will see some serious declines this AM on the word of that Fed official that "some" Fed members "might" consider tightening again in October, "if" the Friday report comes in at a certain number. . . . Yeah, right. . . The media is pumping this garbage about September being a month of big declines, historically. . . "September Sell-off". . . etc. As usual, I am diametrically opposed to the media's analysis. Here's why: What they fail to mention is that the past 5 Septembers have gone against the "old" historical trend, and have seen gains. And I see no reason that we should be reverting to any trends more than 5 years old. . .however, the trends of recent historical market moves, seem to be getting carved deeper each year. . . which is making it easier and easier to predict the general market moves. . . [not the manipulated ones]. Once again, the best way to predict the future is to study the past. Putting my money where my mouth is. . . I'll be a buyer of high-tech at the lowest point of today's sell-off. . . not waiting until tomorrow, as I believe many others will have the same idea. And come Tuesday when the cash begins to flow back into the markets. . . I believe we will see a return to market moves that have conviction. No more 500 million volume days after Tuesday. . . until December, IMO. So to answer your question, Baton. . . after selling ATHM over 160, we bought it back at 34 and sold it around 42 as a precaution to reduce risk from this extremely low volume week. Today it is asking down to 37 and change. . ."do I think it will drift down to 35 again"? Yes, I believe it will come near 35 or 36 today. . .however, I don't think we will have much time to grab it there. . . Keep one eye on DCLK, CMGI and YHOO. . . .these are recent leading indicators of the direction of the entire internet sector of larger caps. ATHM is not quick to respond, but does follow eventually. But I believe that picking up whatever lows are hit in internets today, will provide some serious gains by this time next week. . . . So my play on internets is on the swing from today's low into next weeks predicted rally in net stocks. It is also a position trade into the fall/winter rally. . . and it could be considered long term, since many of these will be held through until our 9-month target of next early-April. Rande Is . . . . out on another limb.