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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1214)	9/2/1999 7:00:00 AM
From: Labrador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

>> An 11% drop from a rapidly reached all time high of $198. That's the same as a drop from $56 to $50. Hardly a blip on the graph over a five year period. Such changes have been a dime a dozen. << For some unexplainable reason, it appears to have made yesterday's drop seems to have made a bigger dent in my pocketbook.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1214)	9/2/1999 8:40:00 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 13582

Maurice, you are precisely correct on QCOM future prospects. As for the technical analysis, my son has just completed a computer program that uses a sophisticated filtering algorithm to identify the direction of future price levels from minute prior data. We'll see what that program forecasts. Note, in earlier trials using QCOM data, the program resulted in gains averaging 2% per day during a period when the stock price was fairly flat.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1214)	9/2/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: 2brasil	Respond to of 13582

It's not over yet 163 in pre mkt may go to 150's hope not

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1214)	9/2/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: bananawind	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13582

Mq, all. Lost in all the noise about a meaningless quarterly number is the CDG's confirmation yesterday that 6/30/99 worldwide subscribers had reached 35 million, as well as Perry LaForge's confident prediction of topping 50 million by calendar year-end. Some may not realize that these numbers confirm the subscriber growth rate, which drives handset, ASIC, and royalty volumes, is now running at an annualized 131%. This is pretty amazing given the size of the subscriber base these days vs. a few years ago when we were under 5 million. A few numbers to put in perspective; YEAR END SUBSCRIBERS(millions): 1996=1 1997=7 1998=23 1999E=53 (est. based on 6/30 35M and continue 1st half growth rate) NET NEW SUBSCRIBERS/ESTIMATED HANDSETS SOLD(millions)* 1996 1/1 1997 6/6.25 1998 16/17.75 1999E 30/35.75 handset sold est. based on number of new subs plus 25% of previous year-end subscribers. The year to year deltas are very large and it should surprise no one that something like tight component supplies could show up from time to time. Much as Wall St. might wish it otherwise, the real world is lumpy, not quarter to quarter smooth, and production volumes are a stepfunction, not some smoothly rising curve. We should rejoice in a component shortage [well maybe that's a bit strong] to the degree it reflects growth exceeding suppliers' expectations. Meanwhile, new cities in Mexico are going commercial soon, Brazil is in a rapid nationwide buildout, Australia has gone commercial on one system with more on the way, Japan going strong and rolling out data services (as is Korea), data services to turn on this month with Sprint and others, Leap will be building out its new spectrum at some point, and half a dozen countries in Asia and Latin America are expanding their systems. Is there anyone, anywhere, who thinks there will not be at least 40 million new subscribers during calendar 2000?* Can Wall St. see what this means for handset, ASIC, and royalty volumes? We are not talking 3 or 4 years out here. We will be in the middle of all this in less than 10 months. The mindless shorts and day-to-day squiggle watchers may be having some fun right now, but they had better be very nimble as we move to absolute deltas like 10 million new subs per quarter. There's a lot more operating leverage left to be revealed. Best regards, Jim

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1214)	9/2/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: John Cuthbertson	Respond to of 13582

"PS: Did you people know that Ramsey Su went on vacation? He probably tried to sneak out of town because he's fully invested and couldn't face the damage." Aha! So that's what did it. I'll bet crafty old Ramsey deliberately constructed the rules of this thread so that he could claim that they precluded him from posting about his upcoming vacation plans, just to avoid our selling based on such knowledge. Very clever, Ramsey! ==John C.