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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (24494)	9/2/1999 8:35:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

LG, indeed...it also means that the extremely close correlation to '87 that the market has exhibited lately will continue to hold...a frightening thought. regards, hb

To: HairBall who wrote (24494)	9/2/1999 8:50:00 AM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Respond to of 99985

MDA thread members, RE: Contrarian contrarian talk Lately there has been a lot of talk centering around the use of the bull/bear sentiment as a contrary indicator. As a new member to the thread please allow me an "outsider's" (although I don't feel like an outsider) perspective. I have never been surrounded by such a group of very knowledgable traders. This thread has many very sharp technicians and experienced traders. Most thread contributors have a very balanced "global" perspective in terms of economics and geo politics and are hardly representative of the "typical" investment advisor or money manager. Think about it. Most of you guys do what you do for the same reason I do-- because the "so called experts" are a bunch of idiots. If I could have gotten someone else to manage my money properly, I wouldn't be here (and neither would most of you). So, what does that mean? It means (at least to me) that the prevailing nearterm "bearish" tone of late on this thread are the basis of TA. Unlike the "typical" investment professional who is taking the marching orders from the NY office and selling the company line to everyone he cold calls. I don't see the overall thread consensus to be "mainstream" whatsoever. In light of that, I would hardly see this thread consensus to be a contrary indicator! Sorry, but I'll put my money on this thread before the "talking heads" who are hyping stocks their firm is long of and trashing stocks their firm is short of. How many times have you heard that September through December are the slowest in this market (and not to expect much in the way of return)? The fact is that in terms of the Nasdaq 100, historically, September through January (5 months) comprise 2/3 of the average annual growth. The other 7 months only have 1/3 collectively. I have heard everyone trash September, however, September is historically second only to January in terms of average monthly gains. So, in summary, I would fade the "mainstream" consensus, but I think you guys are some of the sharpest people I have encountered when it comes to the markets. Just my opinion. Looks like we will continue this intermediate downtrend for a few more days before we resume our September uptrend. Matt