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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rob108 who wrote (5174)	9/2/1999 9:57:00 AM
From: mrknowitall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Rob - thanks for the post on amazon . . . here's what I see as the inherent problems in all consumer-level e-commerce businesses: 1) Take the total number of potential consumers (xxx Millions). 2) Subtract those that do not have access to the internet at all or are not old enough or equipped with a credit card (x Millions). 3) Subtract a portion of those who only have access to the internet through their workplace, and are blocked from e-commerce sites (x millions). 4) Subtract a portion of potential customers who are not comfortable using their credit card for purchases over the Internet and those who have privacy concerns (x-millions). 5) Subtract those prospective customers who actually enjoy hands-on shopping (x millions). Ok, now you have a more realistic "target" market. It's growing, particularly as cheap computer and service deals keep luring people to the 'net. BUT, the real buyer ratio isn't significantly changing. We're through the "early-adopter" phase of e-commerce and the growth curve is just not going to get much steeper until the "comfort" issues are satisfactorily addressed. I think we're about to reach the level of near-stasis, where market share among e-commerce businesses drifts in competition with traditional retailers. Mr. K.