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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Uncle Frank who wrote (5850)9/2/1999 2:08:00 PM
From: Another John  Respond to of 54805
 
Uncle FranQ,

As long as your knuckles are not dragging on the floor (extended arm syndrome) you will survive!

Best wishes,

John



To: Uncle Frank who wrote (5850)9/2/1999 2:16:00 PM
From: Apollo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 54805
 
Unc:

1. Does Intel's stance on accommodating competing high speed dram technologies signal an unfavorable shift in fundamentals for rmbs?
2. Based on today's prices and market scenario, would you expect a better return from rmbs or one of the Gorillas (Q, Mr. Softee, Cisco) over the next 12 months?


boy, great questions. Here are the answers....
1. I think the worst case scenario is that the Rambus ramp up is slower than was hoped for. The best case is that it ramps up pretty quickly. I think the fundamentals are unchanged, but I sure as hell don't know with certainty.
2. This is the question that has haunted me. I think anticipating where the better return will come from is really tough to answer. Shifting money out of Rambus into Q for 6 months, then back into Rambus for a hypergrowth phase, is akin to market timing, plus tax consequences and commissions. You and Lindy are right about not being stubborn, but at this point, my money on Rambus is based on my views of the fundamentals. However, I freely admit I could be wrong.

Whatever the market, I am presently 50% Q, 15% Intc, 15% Lu, 15% Rambus, the remainder EMC, Gemstar, EXDS. The first 80% seems pretty reliable and safe. Rambus is the potential home run. So, I'll keep looking ahead for changes in fundamentals, and will shoot for the fences with Rambus. BTW, I expect Rambus to surprise and beat analysts' estimates in Oct, and again in Jan.

I'm open to advice, and very aware I don't have all the answers,
Thanx, Stan



To: Uncle Frank who wrote (5850)9/2/1999 3:51:00 PM
From: Apollo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Unc: (given recent events, I left off the Q)

btw, I've had white knuckles for the past two days. Is there a medical treatment you'd recommend?

Sex and alcohol. As a physician, I recommend these remedies in exactly this order.

Apollo



To: Uncle Frank who wrote (5850)9/2/1999 4:07:00 PM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
On the chance that not everyone already knows this: the revised, 1999 edition of The Gorilla Game is now available. The publication date had been 10/99, but apparently it was released early. I'm going to start reading my new copy tonight. (I already snuck a peek at page 135 which says "In 1998, for example, a company called Rambus took on a gorilla position in the emerging market for next-generation memories.")

StockHawk