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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (23360)	9/2/1999 6:41:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68388

ORTL CC 402-220-9729, #5861 CIBC Oppenheimer- reiterates buy, but prefers to own shs. closer to their $15 asset value/price target. Says price to sales ratio of 3X is in line w/ CATV equip. group but well below optical component peer group. Assigns $2.50/shr. value to Tellium holding. Warburg Dillon Read- Maintains hold but raises FY00 and FY01 ests. from (.29) to (.02) and from .13 to .18, respectively. Says stock is fully valued on P/E basis but low P/S ratio can support current stock price. Prudential- Maintains hold, cutting FY00 and FY01 ests. from (.07) to (.13) and from .33 to .30, respectively due to higher operating expense assumption. Values Tellium stake at $4/shr. Positive about mgmt. team and early results, but says stock is ahead of itself. ************************* To: ~fumble </wsapi/investor/personalprofile-4375484> (~13145 </wsapi/investor/reply-11121748> ) From: ~zbyslaw owczarczyk </wsapi/investor/personalprofile-1012148> Tuesday, Aug 31 1999 7:43PM ET Reply # of 13185 TELECOMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT MARKET ''UNDERGOING TREMENDOUS Fundamental Change,' New Sutro Research Report Points Out Business Editors & Telecommunications Writers SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 31, 1999--"Fueled primarily by continued growth of the Internet and continued deregulation," the market for telecommunications equipment "is undergoing tremendous fundamental change," according to a newly issued research report from Sutro & Co. This rapid growth "has rendered some traditional telecommunications equipment obsolete," Sutro asserts in its Quarterly Telecommunications Review. Although telecommunications carriers are beginning to adopt next- generation technologies, they have more than $1 trillion invested in existing infrastructure, the Sutro report notes. Thus "the transition to new-generation networks will be a gradual migration occurring in multiple stages rather than a replacement of existing infrastructure," the report predicts. The Sutro report was prepared by Patrick Houghton, senior vice president and head of the firm's Telecommunications Equity Research Group, and analyst Natarajan Subrahmanyan. The Sutro analysts estimate that the total, worldwide market for telecommunications equipment is about $200 billion a year. This market includes six types of telecommunications products: switches, wireless equipment, transport and transmission equipment, voice-processing equipment and data-communications products. The worldwide market for switching equipment, which includes local exchange switches and tandem switches, is currently about $40 billion a year, and each segment is growing by about 5 percent to 10 percent annually, according to the Sutro report. Sales of wireless equipment, which includes wireless switches, are currently running at about $50 billion and are growing by 20 percent to 25 percent a year, the Sutro analysts estimate. The global market for transport and transmission equipment is now about $20 billion and is growing about 25 percent to 30 percent annually, analysts Houghton and Subrahmanyan estimate. Sales of voice-processing equipment are currently running at about $20 billion annually, according to the Sutro analysts. The data- communications equipment market, driven by an increase in data traffic of about 30 percent annually, is now about $40 billion a year and is growing about 15 percent annually, according to the Sutro report. The Sutro Quarterly Telecommunications Review also includes reports on 11 manufacturers of telecommunications products: Cisco Systems, Nortel Networks, Tellabs Inc., 3Com Corp., Newbridge Networks, Digital Microwave Corp., World Access, P-Com Inc., Ortel Corp., Performance Technologies and Centigram Communications Corp. Note to Editors: To obtain a copy of the new Sutro Quarterly Telecommunications Review, call Frances Flores at 213/362-4153. ************************ On conference call, ORTL said they own 14%-15% of Tellium. According to a Tellium spokesman, CSCO owns 5%. ******************* messages.yahoo.com ******************* I am confused. ORTL's '98 10K, page 38 says it owns 22% of tellium. '99 10K (page 37) says 18%. Now they indicate 14-15% in the conference call. I would think the latest 10K's (just came in the mail) 18% should be correct as the most recent documented number. I will get this clarified by Ortel. ******************** messages.yahoo.com ******************** messages.yahoo.com