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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1234)	9/2/1999 6:02:00 PM
From: Mark Fleming	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Qualcomm a pick on CNBC (Thursday, 2:45PM pst): Transcript from www.myeyes.com: Over to tyler for "taking stock". Tyler: Welcome to "taking stock," your chance to speak with some of the top money managers around the country. Joining us today is phil orlando, chief investment officer at value line asset management. Phil's stock picks today include qualcomm , staples, and intimate brands. Call phil now with your stock questions. The number, 1-800-752-cnbc. Always good to see you, you're going to a neighbor of the clintons in. >> Apparently, they're moving a few miles down the road from me in chappaqua new york. Tyler: One of your topics, qualcomm , the stock crushed earlier, worries about margins and competition in that business. Why do you like it? >> Qualcomm ranked a one in the timeliness system, the stock at about 198 dollars a couple days ago, it got down to 157 dollars this morning so we lost about $40 in value in a couple days. We think the concern regarding the slowdown in hand set volume tans like is probably overdone. And as a result of that, a 40-point correction in the stock we think provides an attractive entry point for investors that may have miss it it on the way up. Tyler: Number one, top-rated stock, if you like at it 190, you love it at 150. >> We're buyers at these levels.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1234)	9/2/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Valueman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

Maurice: Just cruised the Telstra site. I was happy to see the QCP-860 as their Qualcomm offering, along with phones from Q ASIC users LG and Motorola(with the Korean import phone--still not certain if Q ASICs control the innards of the 7760 line StarTacs made outside the US). The ThinPhone is down under! And why not? It's Thin, easily shipped, stacks well in cargo planes. Funny that it shows up on Telstra's web site, and here in the USA it can barely be had at Sprint PCS who hardly acknowledges its existence, or at PrimeCo, which has a similar air about them. Not a single mention of a ThinPhone on Sprint or Primeco's web site.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1234)	5/25/2000 11:48:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 13582

Okay, here are the 2000 figures for cumulative cdmaOne handset sales. Resetting the scale to . = 10m to make the graph manageable. Dec1995 start in Hong Kong Dec1996 1m Jun1997 3m Dec1997 7m Jun1998 12m Dec1998 23m.. Jun1999 30m... Dec1999 50m..... Jun2000 65m....... Dec2000100m.......... Reviewing progress. The Rich Janitor says 65m MSMs shipped to the end of September 99. Q1 added 14 million and Q2 11 million. This Q is high at about 17 million. Cumulative sales of MSMs ever for mobile CDMA = 100 million the other day. Gee, it seems just yesterday that it was 10 million MSMs cumulative. We can safely bet on a parts limited CDMA handset market for the rest of the year, but very rapidly growing. The lag from sale of MSM to matching subscriber growth by sale of that handset seems to be about 2 months or less. So, with 14 + 11 + 17 + 20 + 24 MSM sales to December we should be at about 150 MSM sold by then, with WWeb MSMs kicking in. Currently there are about 60m subscribers and 100m MSMs sold. If we guess the same ratio for Dec, there should be 100m handsets sold by end of Dec. Okay, time to revise down my graph from 122m to 100m subscribers by Dec 2000. Still, that's better than 70m which were estimated by Q! at the beginning of the year. Not bad considering the huge drop in share price against such a graph. Mqurice PS: Don't forget to dehypothecate tomorrow [or next week] and turn the market around. While I think of it, New Zealand does NOT have CDMA yet and it won't be until toward the end of next year by the look of it. So that post about Australi/New Zealand, Canada, USA, Japan etc all going great on CDMA was a little wrong. NZ is still a separate country from Australia - there is NO CDMA here.