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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jill who wrote (5898)9/2/1999 10:54:00 PM
From: Teflon  Respond to of 54805
 
Listen, I'll do whatever the consensus of this Thread thinks is right. This isn't personal. I was only trying to help while also providing a platform for those of us that like to talk about things that don't meet the standards set forth by the Group.

Again, this was an attempt to help while maintaining the integrity of this AWESOME THREAD. Nothing more.

Teflon



To: Jill who wrote (5898)9/2/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
The new CDMA subscriber data is up at the web site.
I keep the data on a spreadsheet to track the growth.

Total New
Quarter Subs Subs Seq't'l Annual
Ending X 1000 X 1000 Growth Growth

Sep-97 4250 NA NA NA
Dec-97 7800 3550 NA NA
Mar-98 9225 1425 -60% NA
Jun-98 12130 2905 104% NA
Sep-98 16000 3870 33% NA
Dec-98 23000 7000 81% 97%
Mar-99 28515 5515 -21% 287%
Jun-99 33622 5107 -7% 76%

What does all that mumbo jumbo mean in gorilla terms?

Look at the two quarters ending in December. They're
huge, mostly likely due to holiday buying of cell phones
and subscription services. The most important
ramification is that the subsequent drop in growth rates
during the periods ending in March is no surprise given
the huge December quarters that will probably always be
big due to holiday buying.

No doubt you're wondering why the quarter ending in
June of this year shows slightly negative sequential
growth in new subscribers. It's hard if not impossible
to absolutely know the cause.

But this is not a dismal story. Though the quarter
ending June experienced negative growth in new
subscribers, that growth compared with a year earlier
is still up 76%. There there were 20% more new
subscribers in the quarter than total subscribers
just 21 months earlier (September, 1997). And there
were 15% more new subscribers added in the first half
of this year than there were total subscribers in
March, 1998.

To sum it up, with each of the last three quarters
showing an average of 121% annual growth, I'd say the
tornado's winds are still fiercely blowing. Hunker
down in the cellar.

--Mike Buckley