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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken98 who wrote (24826)	9/3/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Ken98: Give the Market time to "digest" the news...<g> Regards, LG

To: Ken98 who wrote (24826)	9/3/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Market Rallies on "soft" US Employment Report Bank of Montreal, bmo.com US non-farm payrolls rose a smaller-than-expected 124,000 in August compared with expectations of around 225,000. The modest gain in August followed upward revisions to job growth in July and June (338,000 from 310,000 and 281,000 from 273,000, respectively). Employment growth has averaged 248,000 in the past three months, well above a sustainable pace. As a result, the jobless rate slipped to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July, suggesting that labour shortages are worsening. The weakness in August reflected a surprising 63,000 loss of manufacturing jobs, though this followed a gain of 51,000 in July. As well, construction fell 29,000 and retail was down 3,000 in August. These declines were more than offset by a 123,000 gain in services and a 47,000 advance in government jobs. Wages remained subdued in August. Average hourly earnings rose a smaller-than-expected 0.2%, allowing the year-over-year rate of increase to moderate to 3.5% from 3.7% in July. However, part of the weakness in wages likely reflects the decline in manufacturing employment, a sector that on average pays more than other sectors. Debt markets jumped on news of the moderate gains in employment and wages in August, with yields on 10-year Treasuries dropping 10 basis points to 5.89%. The report reduces slightly the prospect of Fed tightening at the next policy meeting on October 5. In our view, the Fed is still likely to lift rates in coming months, though it might wait until the November 16 policy meeting to see the release of September employment figures (due October 8). Job growth should rebound sharply in September because the US economy remains red hot judging from this week?s data on August motor vehicle sales and manufacturing activity as well as July factory orders and new home sales. With domestic demand still growing strongly and labour markets tightening, the Fed will likely see the need for further pre-emptive action.

To: Ken98 who wrote (24826)	9/3/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Ken98, <<Phil Rones, an official with the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, said seasonal quirks factors heavily affected the figures. ''The simple reason for the manufacturing decline is...they went up so much last month,' he said. <<<< A strong correction will eventually happen, and I believe we were very close today. If those numbers were negative, I would have expected a strong selloff with many indices breaking support lines to the downside. When I first heard such a low number, I immediately suspected an anomoly which appears to be the case. For all these experts to be off their numbers by more than 50% did not seem reasonable. If I remember correctly, last months numbers were near 300,000 and today's was around 100,000 so if you average the 2 together it would be in line with what was expected which was around 215,000. seeya