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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (24856)	9/3/1999 6:08:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Great Post! Good Luck, Lee EOM

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (24856)	9/3/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: russet	Respond to of 99985

We might add one more thing to your last post predicting a weakening U.S. dollar, and increasing capital outflows. The slope of the curve of new advancements in computer and electronic technology is starting to lessen. The U.S. rode that curve in this decade to manufacture and export large amounts of computer related, telecom, and software technology which gave birth to the internet and communication revolutions. If this innovation curve levels off significantly, it will allow the low cost clone makers in the rest of the world to catch up, something like foreign imports of automobiles in the last decade. Strong U.S. consumer demand, an aging U.S. population wanting to back off the long work hours(that helped give birth to this new technology boom) and enjoy life, and the innovation curve flattening out would cause a huge negative change in the trade deficit to further sink the dollar over the next few years. U.S. based manufacturers will have to keep inventing faster and faster chips, better boxes and devices, and better and more user friendly software to stop this from happening. The increasing trend of U.S. trade deficits suggests the above is already happening.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (24856)	9/7/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: danderso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, I was off line for a few days and didn't read your post until now. As usual, it was well said. I plan to show it to a couple friends of mine who thought I was too pessimistic when I tried to make similar points about risk in the market. Any thoughts on what the relative magnitudes of the markets and money flows say about changes in market levels? All things equal, the larger US market and economy would experience a decline smaller than the rise in Japan for a given change in investment. On the other hand, it's not all equal <g> My guess is that the changes influence at the margins and via changes of sentiment, both of which amplify. David