To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (60540 ) 9/3/1999 11:51:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Haim admittedly some features of today's move were not encouraging for the bulls, volume being one of them. another was that several of the leading tech stocks that broke out to new highs did so in what appeared to be a blow-off move, producing closes outside the upper 20 BB's unconfirmed by volume and the ultimate oscillator. there is also the fact that in the case of some indices, a lot of money was apparently thrown into the fray yesterday to defend support levels and after the gap up this morning the market basically churned (the SPX did, anyway) at the higher levels. this churning period may well have been a distribution period. but this doesn't really invalidate the move as of yet...it merely suggests that at least a short term pullback should be in the cards. the magnitude of the pullback and the volume accompanying it will reveal whether today was a fluke or not imo. a look at a longer term NAZ chart also reveals that this was the last index to top out in '87, and as is the case today, the semiconductor issues were the leaders at the time. this is not surprising, as the semis are the most cyclical sector of all and traditionally perform excellently in a rising rate environment - up to a point.
