To: Tomas who wrote (50412 ) 9/7/1999 5:56:00 PM From: Tomas Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
China - Investors Skeptical Over Overseas Crude Reserves Dow Jones Newswires, September 6 By XU YIHE SINGAPORE -- As China National Petroleum Corp. prepares to float its proposed holding company on the New York Stock Exchange, foreign investors remain skeptical about its overseas crude reserves, which are likely to be part of the new company's assets, analysts told Dow Jones Newswires. Concerns about exploration risks, size and quality of recoverable reserves, production capacity and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to dilute investors' interest in the holding company's overseas portfolio, said one analyst with a bank in Hong Kong. A senior official with CNPC confirmed the company has included most of overseas oil and gas projects in the portfolio of the new holding company, which is looking to raise $10 billion through its initial public offering in October. Through its aggressive attempt over the past six years to become a global oil player, CNPC boasts operations in nine countries outside China, including Sudan, Peru, Canada, Thailand, Venezuela, Kuwait and Kazakhstan. A consultant with a multinational company based in Hong Kong said investors will be keen to invest in a resources asset that has adequate commercial value to provide positive cash flow. But since most of CNPC's overseas assets have been abandoned by host countries because of a lack of prolific yield, they aren't as attractive to many foreign investors, he noted. The CNPC official rejected such a notion. He said his company is expecting to produce 10 million tons of crude oil from its overseas fields by next year, with 50 million tons a year by 2010. Analysts said CNPC might be able to achieve its overseas production target, but multinational oil majors wouldn't consider investing in such ventures given the quality of reserves. Millions Of Dlrs For Small Production Increase Fields, such as those CNPC acquired in Peru, might have value to CNPC because of their low costs - the result of technical advantages and cheap labor - but by international standards these fields are not worth the efforts, the Hong Kong-based consultant said. CNPC's equity in Talara, Peru's oldest field, has been producing for about a century, and the output at the field peaked in the 1950s, industry sources said. When taken over by CNPC in January, 1994, the Talara field had 1,800 abandoned wells. CNPC invested millions of dollars to restore 100 of them, leading to production increase of only 80 tons a day. In Venezuela, the sources said the orimulsion oil CNPC produces doesn't have international demand because most western companies have banned direct burning of the oil on environmental concerns. CNPC plans to build a refinery there to process the crude, sources said. Analysts said upstream operation involves risks and uncertainties, including exploration and production risks and political and fiscal instabilities in some regions. "(Emergence of) any of them (the uncertainties) will cause delay or disruption in development of the foreign ventures," the consultant said. He said investors won't have enough confidence to acquire stakes in assets located in politically sensitive countries, such as CNPC's crude reserves in Iraq. Iraq Assets May Turn U.S. Investors Away "At least, American investors won't do that," he said, adding that conflicts of any kind in Iraq might affect the production and transportation of the crude oil, he said. CNPC has pursued oil deals with Iran and Iraq. It signed two production sharing contracts with Iraq to develop oil prospects in the Ahdab oilfields in 1997. The contracts, with annual production of 5 million tons and more than 10 million tons, would take effect when the United Nations lifts sanctions imposed on Iraq. One major concern, said the Hong Kong-based consultant, is a lack of first-hand geological survey data. This has made reserves estimates difficult for most of these fields. Estimates are based on the information provided by host countries, which sometimes are not reliable, the consultant noted. Recently CNPC decided to postpone its plan to build a pipeline to move crude oil from Kazakhstan to northwest China, saying there wasn't enough crude resources at Kazakhstan's Uzen and Aktyunbinsk oil fields to justify the pipeline. The commercial crude availability for the pipeline is estimated at less than 7.6 million metric tons a year, below the designed pipeline capacity of 25 million tons a year.