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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (24895)	9/4/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 99985

LG, My vote is a mix between A&B. There was obviously an over-reaction. I think this run will have been significant when it is over (~120 S&P points) but the continuation to significant new highs for the S&P is improbable. The Nasdaq could make new highs very easily however. My target for the S&P is 1380-1400+. My vote is 1/2 A and 1/2 B<g> Chris

To: HairBall who wrote (24895)	9/4/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: NucTrader	Respond to of 99985

B

To: HairBall who wrote (24895)	9/4/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Trumptown	Respond to of 99985

Mostly A, with a little B However, the data and the reaction coupled with fresh September $$$s and trapped shorts increase the probability of a blow off top into late September... May not see the retrace till October... SR

To: HairBall who wrote (24895)	9/4/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: dclapp	Respond to of 99985

B Trends that point to a lower market remain in place. What Heinz, Greenspan (I knew they'd be mentioned in the same sentence, someday!) and others rightly call a "mania" is now running on fumes, witness the oft-mentioned AD line. For market participants, there are always "bad bets," "average bets," "good bets" and "inevitable bets." (I prefer the latter...but hey: that's just me :-) Personally, I think lower indexes in the next 1-3 months are the most inevitable scenario. The timing of that event, and whether it's a rolling top, stair-step down, sharp move downward, etc., is interesting, and will be instructive, but only that. I think a rolling top is the most likely; I think we're too close to very justified "year-end caution (fear?)" for any "wave 5 blow-off" silliness, though it'd be a great blessing for put buyers <g>. doug ps -- You're a great host, LG. My only requests would be cigars and brandy. Can you arrange? <g>

To: HairBall who wrote (24895)	9/6/1999 9:08:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 99985

MDA Poll for the Holiday Weekend Well the first one did not get many responses so, I'll try again... Was Friday's gap up: A) The continuation of the rally from the 8/10 lows. Expect this to be a bull-run with significant new highs in the majority of major Indices. B) An overreaction to the economic news, the day before a holiday. Expect a retrace of the gaps created Friday soon, followed by a continuation of the down-trend started at the highs on 7/19. C) Just part of a trading range. If so, what are the parameters of that range? (Use a major Indice) When do you expect the trading range to end and which way will it break? D) None of the above...Your Alternative prognostication. OK, MDA'ers, let's have your take...let us know where you think the market is headed medium term...<gg> Regards, LG PS: To all those that are new to the MDA Thread, be sure and bookmark the MDA Help Page Thread. Be sure and read the header as well. You can find it at: Subject 25738