BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS The Internet Stock Team ------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: internetstocks.com If you do not have access to a browser, please reply to mailto:internetstocks@rsco.com with the message "unsubscribe" in the subject box. Mailing List Changes: internetstocks.com ------------------------------------------------------------------- September 3, 1999
The Web Report - Volume 2, Issue #35
Internetstocks.com Overview - Keith E. Benjamin - mailto:keith@rsco.com
This week, the NETDEX index fell 7% to 498.145 compared with the NASDAQ's 2% increase.
MOMENTUM BUILDING - We expect the whole group will generally rise through September, heading toward old highs by year-end. We expect investors to focus on improving fundamental trends, particularly related to back-to-school and holiday shopping. We've also begun to hear of higher advertising rates, particularly for targeted banners. We find a wider range of stocks appealing and have been trying to focus on a few stocks each week. This past week, ICG and Fatbrain stand out. For the next few weeks, we expect some of the lagging stocks to rebound, including CMGI, Lycos and TicketMaster Online CitySearch. We also want to stick with Yahoo!, as the group's leader, in our view. And Amazon could be the biggest turnaround, in our opinion.
FATBRAIN CREATING NEW PUBLISHING MARKETPLACE: Fatbrain launched eMatter this week, a new model for digital publishing. The idea is to allow secure downloading of documents, enabling publication of smaller-than-book length work on an economically viable basis. Adobe and Microsoft have developed a technology that stops consumers from sending electronic copies of downloaded file formats. However, upon receiving a forwarded email, one could chose to buy and effectively unlock the file. As such, we believe the technology lends itself to viral marketing. Security functions also allow publishers or authors to disallow printing. eMatter acts as almost an online auction service, connecting publishers/authors with readers. The publisher or author sets the price per download per document, then pays eMatter a $1 monthly listing fee and splits the royalty 50/50 with eMatter. Until the end of the year, the fee will be waived and the authors will be allowed to keep 100% of the royalty price. This should help build a critical mass of content. Fatbrain already has an audience that should generate some significant amount of demand. The service will be consistent with Fatbrain's eBusiness strategy and is focused primarily on the professional marketplace. Documents such as research reports, self-published documents, presentations, and newsletters will be available as both Adobe pdf files and Microsoft Word documents.
The promise of virtual publishing has been buzzing for years. We believe Fatbrain may have figured out the formula with eMatter. eMatter's strategy appears to have less friction than the music downloading technologies, which could displace the role of music labels, allowing self-publishing through the major Web networks. MP3 technology has enabled thousands of want-to-be recording stars to give away music to test demand before selling full albums, effectively eliminating the need for traditional clunky music labels. eMatter can provide some of the marketing functions currently provided by publishers, but is more of an enabling system for both publishers and authors. It helps the publishers exploit the 10-100 page range of short stories and articles from authors. Publishers like MacMillan and McGraw-Hill have joined eMatter to distribute content. We expect much more new content can emerge. We believe there are plenty of aspiring authors of both fiction and professional writing that can self-publish.
If a digital publishing market emerges, who is positioned to compete? We expect it would be natural for Amazon and eBay to consider adding this capability. We believe Fatbrain has a first-mover advantage at this stage and can stay focused. As we have seen with eBay, there seems a strong advantage to building the biggest base of suppliers and buyers. Maintaining focus has appeared to help eBay maintain its wide lead against Amazon. Fatbrain is starting with its current reach of over 1 million people within its corporate customer base of outsource online bookstores. Already, Fatbrain reaches over a million potential customers through its outsource corporate bookstores. With some marketing efforts, eMatter should be able to reach a much broader audience. In fact, we wonder how quickly this model can grow by word-of-mouth.
How big can this market become? While we are keeping our revenue and earnings estimates unchanged, we think the market could easily start in the hundreds of millions to multiple billion range someday. Some titles might generate hundreds of dollars and others much more. In either case, the business appears highly profitable for Fatbrain. For a hypothetical $320 in revenue per title, a gross margin of $115 less a $5 processing cost and a $10 customer acquisition cost results in a $100 contribution. The marketing cost may vary somewhat, depending upon the profile of the title. Some authors may be worth more of an investment. We liked the stock before eMatter, which now provides a relatively open-ended and more profitable business opportunity.
eTail Update - Lauren Cooks Levitan
The eTailDEX fell 7% to 1025.4 versus 1099.3 last week, ending a 2-week rebound from the lows tested in early August. The eTailDEX is up 26% from the recent low of 812.5 on 8/4/99 but still down 43% from the 52-week high of 1807.45. We expect the group to resume its recovery following the Labor Day holiday as investors start to focus on those stocks best positioned to benefit from growing consumer enthusiasm for online shopping during the holiday season. We look for Amazon, which split 2-for-1 this week, to benefit disproportionately from this attention and continue to strongly recommend purchase.
AMAZON CRITICS MISS THE BIG PICTURE - In our view, the company's critics who believe the company's business model is flawed have made inconsistent and irrelevant assumptions regarding Q2 results. Simply put, we believe taking snap shots of companies in early stages of growth (realize 6 of Amazon's 7 store tabs did not exist a year ago) can greatly misrepresent operating performance and overlook longer-term growth opportunities. In fact, we have been surprised and impressed by Amazon's surging traffic statistics (as measured by MediaMetrix) during the summer months. This figure is particularly impressive, given the proliferation of eTailers vying for customer time and dollars. We fully expect the combination of this strong momentum as we head into Q4 as well as Amazon's high level of back-end preparedness, to support opportunities for substantial upside to our Q4 estimates. We continue to view Amazon as a core eTail holding and believe its stock performance can exceed the averages.
EBAY - AOL COBRANDED SITE HIGHLIGHTS MASS MARKET OPPORTUNITY - While eBay's brand strength and scaleable business model have won investor admiration, we believe some investors have been challenged to understand how eBay's service extends beyond fanatical collectors to reach a true mass market (even with 5.6 million users at the end of Q2 versus just 851,000 users a year earlier). We expect the launch this week of the company's much anticipated co-branded site within the AOL environment could shift that perception. AOL and their 18+ million users clearly represent the mass market online pointing to a tremendous growth opportunity for eBay. We believe this news is the first in a series of upcoming AOL-related endeavors, which should include local and international site launches via AOL's DigitalCity. In our view, integration with AOL represents a valuable opportunity for eBay to extend its person-to-person auction service from the early adopters (i.e. serious Pez collectors) to mainstream Web users while also extending its lead versus newer auction market entrants.
ETOYS DRIVES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ROAD - eToys announced its first foray into international markets will be the United Kingdom and will occur sometime this fall. We believe eToys has hired a sound management team to build the eToys brand in Europe. More importantly, we believe eToys, like most smart retailers, has developed a business and site that is country specific, not simply an exported version of what has been successful here in the U.S. We believe eToys is well ahead of its competition and view the company's international expansion plan as an opportunity for the company to further its lead this holiday season.
PRICELINE MOVING PAST TRAVEL - Priceline expanded its mortgage service offering this week through a 49% owned joint venture with Alliance Capital Partners, a unitary thrift holding company. To date, Priceline has helped its customers secure approximately $500 million in accepted mortgage, refinancing, and home equity loans through its business relationship with LendingTree. Priceline also expanded its car buying service to five new states, and now services areas that account for an estimated one-third of all new car sales in the U.S. We look for Priceline to offer its car service in all 48 contiguous states by the end of Q1:2000. While these two announcements concern expansion of previously available Priceline services, we believe Priceline is on the verge of making several similar announcements of extension into new service offerings. We believe Priceline's demand collection system, coupled with the company's strong brand awareness, can be extended into several business-to-consumer and business-to-business product categories. Recently however, we believe Priceline's stock performance has been the victim of the company's own success. In our view, Priceline's successful travel business has distracted investors from the company's many growth opportunities in other markets. We believe through additional announcements of Priceline's brand extension into other product categories, such as this week's mortgage announcement, investors should gain a better appreciation for how Priceline can grow well beyond its current valuation.
BEYOND.COM EXTENDS ITS GOVERNMENT REACH - Beyond.com was awarded a government contract by the Department of the Navy to provide up to $30 million in Corel packaged software to all Department of Defense (DoD) agencies. The contract is for one year, with the option to renew for a second and third year. In comparison to Beyond's other DoD contracts which are with specific agencies, this agreement covers all DoD agencies and its over 3 million employees. Given the contract is not for a fixed number of titles, we are maintaining our estimates until we gain visibility over the next couple of quarters on how much demand Beyond can expect. We are impressed by Beyond's growing presence in the government market and feel this contract could pave the way for additional future contracts.
eNetwork Update - Michael Graham - mailto:michael@rsco.com
AOL SET FOR HOLIDAYS - We believe investors have been concerned about price competition and broadband access. We believe AOL's brands are holding up well and see upside to our September quarter domestic AOL estimate of 800,000 net domestic additions. However, we suspect international growth may be closer to 100,000 than our 200,000 estimate. We suspect AOL's brand has not had enough time to build momentum outside of the U.S. to move against price-based local competition like FreeServe in the U.K. We expect AOL will be able to use the same formula with CompuServe and regain share over the next year or so. In the U.S., we believe CompuServe will surprise us with its new discounted service bundled with free PCs. We do not expect this to be at the expense of higher margin, AOL branded member growth, which we believe continues to remain strong. We continue to believe AOL's strength lies first in its growing ability to reach nearly every Internet user through some client (AOL, ICQ, Netscape, Compuserve, etc.), and second in its savvy transformation of this reach into revenue and profits. AOL launched its previously announced co-branded auction site with eBay. We expect upside to our commerce estimates in the September quarter, and more in the December quarter, due to the rent AOL is able to charge merchants. While we suspect we are at least 6 months away from any sort of broad cable deal, we expect the first evidence of DSL success in the December quarter. We believe steady subscriber growth in the face of price-based competition and its ability to capture a significant portion of holiday commerce will help the stock at least perform in line with the group.
TMCS - TicketMaster Online CitySearch delivered a great June quarter, in our view, but the stock reached a recent low this week at under $25, down 38% from its July high of over $40. The stock may be suffering from concerns regarding the influence of USA Networks, which owns approximately 50% of the stock, with voting control. Could another deal materialize that appears to favor USA more than TMCS? It does not appear that TMCS needs traffic and commerce from the proposed three-way merger, given its independent improvements. We believe it is more likely that USA continues as a passive investor, effectively using TMCS to make more acquisitions. Recent deals have expanded local transaction offerings, including auctions, personals, and employment classifieds. Online ticket sales have already reached an inflection point with noticeable acceleration. The idea is to generate incremental revenues by offering more to the company's large local audience. The nature of its business model is quite attractive, in our view, as it effectively receives high-margin recurring revenues from its services after its initial investment in building a base of business customers and local audiences. We expect local content and commerce to grow more important and valuable as individuals' Web habits mature. With the integration of Sidewalk, the company has cemented its leadership position, in our view. The one remaining competitor, AOL's Digital City, appears to lack momentum. By next year, we expect the possibility of a faster path to profitability, although we expect the company to still invest aggressively to build the business, which we expect will continue to generate dramatic positive revenue surprises over the next few quarters. We expect ticketing to be stronger in the December quarter on seasonal strength of ticketed events.
CMGI - With the strong performance of ICGE's stock, discussed below, we believe investors will continue to pay a premium for investment expertise on the Web. As such, we expect CMGI's stock to be among the leaders over the next few weeks. Currently, CMGI is up 10.4% from its recent low of $73 *, but still 51% off its Spring high of $165. We estimate the current asset value is at least $57 per share. If we take an optimistic stance regarding the IPO prospects for each of the more than 30 investments, we estimate the asset value to be $127 per share. With the acquisition of AltaVista, CMGI will be able to report more relevant operating revenues. We see the opportunity for CMGI to effectively invest in AltaVista's growth, starting with its free access promotion.
LYCOS - Lycos' stock is up 27% from its August low of $33, but still down 22% from its July high of $54, despite fundamental improvements demonstrated last quarter. Traffic has been growing at the high end of the Web range. We believe new commerce services, including music sites recently launched, will help traffic over the next two quarters. The business has crossed the threshold to profitability. We estimate CMGI only owns about 13% of the stock, suggesting less real overhang than may be perceived. The stock becomes poolable again October 9th. We expect this may facilitate larger acquisitions, which could provide positive catalysts for the stock. The company is also planning a spinout IPO for its European ventures at the beginning of next year at a potentially high valuation.
DIGITAL RIVER INTRODUCES NEW EBOT SOFTWARE - Digital River introduced a new digital product this week called eBot. eBot is an electronic robot that sits on a user's desktop and helps determine which software, upgrades, bug fixes, add-ons and patches a specific PC might need. Then eBot allows you to download and install selected products. We view this as another valuable tool Digital River offers its customers. We expect that the service could lead to incremental commerce revenues as users purchase upgrades to the free applications they demo through eBot. Digital River's stock is up 25% from its recent low of $19 *, but still down 30% from its recent high of $35 in June. We find Digital River's stock attractive at these levels, relative to open-ended opportunities to provide outsource services just in the software category. We believe there is significant value to Digital River's technology and believe we could see upside from other applications of this technology in the near future.
eBusiness Update - Eric Upin - mailto:eric@rsco.com
ICG BECOMING THE GE OF THE WEB: This week, we initiated coverage of Internet Capital Group with a Buy rating. ICG invests in and acts as the operating manager of a collaborative network of eBusiness companies. As of June 30, 1999, ICG owned interests in 35 companies engaged in electronic business-to-business commerce. ICG focuses on two segments within the eBusiness segment: market makers and infrastructure service providers. We believe ICG is similar to CMGI but differs in its focus on eBusiness companies as well as in its more integrated approach as an operating manager. As such, we believe that ICG is a combination of a venture capital firm and a technology company. We believe ICG can evolve into an eBusiness conglomerate, such as General Electric, providing operating guidance, strategy and resources to its eBusiness companies. We view ICG as a great way to play the eBusiness stock market. We believe the stock will trade at a significant premium based on a growing penetration of the large eBusiness opportunity. Our arguably conservative estimate of the company's asset value is approximately $2.6 billion and our optimistic estimate, assuming most companies go public, would be close to the current market capitalization. We believe in a market cluttered with stocks, investors will bet on a management team with an impressive track record of picking winners. We expect catalysts for the stock include the individual performances of the partner companies as well as a strong IPO market.
EMarketing Update - Lowell J. Singer - mailto:lowell@rsco.com
HIGHER AD RATES BENEFIT eMARKETING SECTOR: - We expect a potential increase in advertising rates by the largest Web publishers demonstrates the power of targeted Web ads and could benefit the leading eMarketing companies. While click-thru rates on poorly targeted banners have declined, we believe that ads on highly targeted Web pages (Yahoo! Finance) remain effective. We expect continued price increases on target pages and potential stabilization on run of site inventory. We continue to believe that eMarketing companies like DoubleClick will provide the targeting to allow all Web publishers to compete for advertising spending with the large portals.
eBrokers - Weekly Stock Volume Report - Scott Appleby - mailto:scott@rsco.com
Volumes Update - The seasonal lull in trading continues to take its toll on trading volumes. This week's NETDEX volumes were down 2.8% from 686 million to 667 million shares traded, the lowest volume total this quarter. Total NASDAQ volume for the week also declined 0.7% from 4.4 billion to 4.37 billion shares traded. The slowdown in volumes is not a surprise given that lower volumes have historically marked the end of August. Additionally, volume levels have further been affected by the Fed's decision to tighten interest rates 25 basis points last week.
This week we are also introducing a market cap-weighted price eBrokerage Index to measure the performance of our eBrokerage stocks relative to the beginning of the year. E*Trade, AmeriTrade, Schwab, NDB, Waterhouse, DLJ Direct, ITG, and Knight/Trimark make up the new eBrokerDex. We believe the seasonal slowdown in volumes has negatively affected the stock prices of our eBrokers in recent months. Relative to a January 4, 1999, baseline of 100, the eBrokerDex reached 190 on June 30, the end of the second quarter. Thereafter, our index showed a steady decline as the summer months began, ending at 149 on July 30. This week, the eBrokerDex closed at 131, down 4% from last week's index close of 137.
We continue to believe that the recent decline in volume is a short-term setback, typical of this time of year. We continue to believe E*Trade and AmeriTrade will remain leaders in eBrokerage, while Knight/Trimark appears well-positioned as the leading market maker.
Quicken.com Update - Intuit announced strong fourth quarter earnings last Thursday, closing out a great fiscal year. The company reported record revenues of $150 million, beating our quarterly earning estimate by $0.07 ($0.04 continuing operations). Intuit's Quicken.com continues to be the hidden jewel in the rough. Internet revenue was $25.5 million for the quarter totaling $125.3 million for the fiscal year, up 157% from last year. Intuit's consumer division made up the largest segment of Internet revenues, bringing in $59 million, while the tax and business divisions brought in $46 and $21 million respectively.
Quicken.com, Intuit's online financial portal, saw seasonally strong page views in July of 160 million, up 78% from last July's page views of 90 million. Online insurance also experienced significant growth, reaching 3,500 life insurance policy applications and about 165,000 auto insurance quotes for the quarter, up from around 3,220 and 134,000, respectively, in 1Q99. Quicken Mortgage originated over $1.2 billion in FY99, totaling nearly $5 million in revenues. The company originated 2,427 loans in 2Q99, 21% higher than E-Loan.
Intuit appears well-positioned to grab significant market share of the growing number of Internet financial transactions. Intuit possesses competitive strengths in brand, scale, and first-mover status. Adding together Intuit's Internet business, software and cash & marketable securities, we arrive at a six-month price target of $110. We strongly encourage investors to accumulate shares in the largest eFinancial portal.
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Ticker Rating Price Price 9/2 8/26 1-Wk 52-Wk Chg Chg High 52Wk 8/26 High to to 9/2 9/2
ALOY BUY $12 7/8 $13 1/4 - 3% $23 1/5 -44.5% AMZN SBUY $60 $123 -51% $110 5/8 -45.7% AOL SBUY $91 1/4 $93 1/4 - 2% $175 1/2 -48.0% ASKJ BUY $31 1/8 $31 1/2 - 1% $77 4/5 -60.0% AWEB BUY $ 9 $ 9 1/8 - 1% $50 -81.9% BYND BUY $17 1/8 $16 1/4 5% $41 1/3 -58.5% CBDR BUY $ 8 4/9 $ 7 4/9 13% $20 -57.8% CDNW MP $13 7/8 $14 1/4 - 3% $39 1/4 -64.6% CMDX BUY $26 3/8 $25 1/2 3% $34 7/8 -24.4% CMGI NR $80 1/8 $81 7/8 - 2% $165 -51.4% CNET BUY $35 4/9 $38 - 7% $79 3/4 -55.6% DRIV BUY $23 4/7 $24 - 2% $61 3/8 -61.6% DCLK NR $93 1/2 $100 1/3 - 7% $176 -46.9% EBAY BUY $121 4/9 $123 - 1% $234 -48.1% EGGS NR $ 7 $ 7 4/9 - 5% $40 1/4 -82.5% ETYS BUY $44 $44 1/4 - 1% $85 -48.2% ATHM NR $37 $40 1/8 - 8% $99 -62.6% GMST SBUY $65 3/4 $66 1/4 - 1% $77 1/2 -15.2% GETY BUY $19 3/8 $21 - 8% $30 1/2 -36.5% SEEK MP $28 7/8 $30 - 4% $100 -71.1% INSP BUY $46 $47 1/2 - 3% $72 5/8 -36.7% LCOS BUY $41 1/8 $40 1/2 2% $72 2/3 -43.4% MQST BUY $11 1/4 $12 - 6% $28 -59.8% MMXI BUY $47 $47 1/4 - 1% $56 5/8 -17.1% MMPT SBUY $30 7/8 $31 7/8 - 3% $55 1/8 -44.0% MLTX BUY $16 3/4 $17 1/8 - 2% $71 1/2 -76.6% NETG NR $25 3/8 $27 - 6% $66 7/8 -62.1% NETP BUY $16 5/8 $16 3/8 2% $35 -52.5% NSOL BUY $56 2/3 $58 - 2% $153 3/4 -63.1% NEWZ MP $ 7 1/8 $ 7 2% $14 1/4 -50.0% ONSL NR $14 3/8 $15 1/4 - 6% $108 -86.7% PCLN SBUY $64 $68 3/4 - 7% $165 -61.2% PTVL BUY $16 1/5 $16 3/8 - 1% $36 -55.0% QKKA BUY $ 8 7/8 $ 9 - 1% $15 7/8 -44.1% SPLN BUY $22 4/7 $23 7/8 - 5% $59 1/4 -61.9% STMP BUY $32 1/2 $35 1/5 - 8% $52 1/2 -38.1% STRM BUY $42 3/8 $38 1/4 11% $70 -39.5% STAD BUY $10 1/2 $11 5/8 -10% $15 1/4 -31.1% TMCS BUY $24 1/2 $25 3/4 - 5% $80 1/2 -69.6% SRCH BUY $ 7 1/8 $ 7 7/8 -10% $17 3/8 -59.0% VUSA BUY $10 2/3 $10 4/5 - 1% $74 1/4 -85.6% XMCM BUY $36 4/5 $39 - 5% $98 1/2 -62.6% YHOO BUY $141 4/7 $145 7/8 - 3% $244 -42.0% UBET BUY $ 8 $ 8 1/4 - 2% $24 1/4 -66.8% NETDEX 498.15 538.17 - 7% 1273.17 -60.9% KEBDEX 749.10 813.04 - 8% 801.41 - 6.5% COMQ 2,734.24 2,692.40 2% N/A N/A To improve the alignment of the table: 1. Highlight the data. 2. Go to the Format menu and choose "Font" 3. Choose "Courier" and press "OK".
(1) Change based on last 12-month's performance. Source: AT Financial Information and BRS Estimates BancBoston Robertson Stephens maintains a market in the shares of Alloy Online, Amazon.com, Ameritrade Holding Company, Ask Jeeves, AutoWeb, Beyond.com, CareerBuilder, CDNow, Chemdex, CMGI, CNET, Digital River, DoubleClick, eBay, Egghead, eToys, E*Trade, Excite @Home, Fatbrain, Gemstar, Getty, GlobalSports, Infoseek, InfoSpace.com, Insweb, Intuit, Knight/Trimark, Lycos, Mapquest.com, Media Metrix, Modem Media Poppe Tyson, Micron Electronics, Microsoft, Multex, , NetGravity, Net Perceptions, Network Solutions, NewsEdge, ONSALE, Portal Software, Priceline.com, Preview Travel, Quokka Sports, SportsLine USA, Stamps.com, StarMedia, Student Advantage, TicketMaster Online-CitySearch, US SEARCH.com, Value America, Xoom.com, Youbet.com, and Yahoo! and has been a managing or comanaging underwriter or has privately placed securities of Alloy Online, Ask Jeeves, AutoWeb, Beyond.com, CareerBuilder, Chemdex, Digital River, eBay, Egghead, eToys, E*Trade, InfoSpace.com, Insweb, Intuit, Knight/Trimark, Mapquest.com, Media Metrix, Modem Media Poppe Tyson, Multex, NetGravity, Net Perceptions, Network Solutions, ONSALE, Portal Software, Priceline.com, Preview Travel, Quokka, SportsLine, Stamps.com, StarMedia, Student Advantage, TicketMaster Online-CitySearch, US SEARCH.com, Value America, Xoom.com, and Youbet.com within the past three years.
* BancBoston Robertson Stephens is acting as adviser in the merger between Alta Vista and CMGI, and therefore in keeping with Firm policy, CMGI goes to No Rating. ** BancBoston Robertson Stephens is acting as adviser in the merger between NetGravity and DoubleClick, and therefore in keeping with Firm policy, rating on DoubleClick goes to No Rating. *** BancBoston Robertson Stephens is acting as an adviser in Excite@Home's acquisition of iMall, and therefore in keeping with Firm policy, rating on Excite@Home goes to No Rating
Rating Definitions: The following are basic definitions for our recommendation ratings.
Strong Buy - Rating for a stock, which we believe could have significant, positive price movement near-term and/or represents outstanding competitive and business model potential. Therefore, we would be aggressive buyers of the stock. Buy - Rating for a stock, which we recommend buying, however believe there may not be near-term news or events to move the stock price. Long-Term Attractive - Rating for a stock, which we believe could have long-term value, however we would not necessarily recommend buying. Market Performer - Rating for a stock, which we believe will perform at, or below, market levels.
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Unless otherwise noted, prices are as of Thursday, September 2, 1999.
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