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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (28714)	9/4/1999 12:28:00 PM
From: REH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

the future revenue is a percentage 1.5-4% of sales price of rdram's and r-chips. it is the future revenue stream that justifies the stock price, not the current see stocksandmoney.com reh

To: Dan3 who wrote (28714)	9/4/1999 3:12:00 PM
From: grok	Respond to of 93625

RE: <There is an upside ceiling but no downside floor.> Dan, there is a long pipeline delay (latency?) in Rambus financial results. Whatever the outcome of the near term scrambling turns out to be it won't be announced financially until April. Here's why: FY98 EPS was $0.28 and consensus FY99 (ends this month) estimate is $0.30 which is not much higher. Remember, of course, that Rambus receives their royalty payment in the quarter after the drdram ships. So there will be no drdram royalties in FY99. The $0.30 in FY99 will be all License fees and Engineering Services except for the royalties on the Concurrent Rdrams in the Nintendo64 (the only Rambus design win in the pre-Intel-sledgehammer days). So the $0.30 is probably in the bag and is not affected by any of the scrambling going on at this time. The same thing will be mostly true next quarter since there will be very few drdrams actually shipped in September to generate royalties next quarter and so consensus EPS is only $0.06 which will likely be met also. The real test comes in the Mar quarter when everything shipped in Oct/Nov/Dec hits Rambus' books (or doesn't hit them). So we'll find out next April what really happened. By the way, consensus FY00 estimate is $0.79 and the 1st quarter is only $0.06 so there will have to be a steep ramp in Q2-Q4 (Jan-Sep). Perhaps the best early indicator of trouble would be if the $0.79 estimate starts getting cut. I'm going to be watching real carefully because I'm long. Even though I generally believe that Rambus will win out in the long term I'm worried about bumps along the way.

To: Dan3 who wrote (28714)	9/5/1999 8:08:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Can somebody help me understand their revenue streams? - an awful lot of unhatched chickens dan, i can help you find the eggs... i carefully follow the companies involved in the rambus ramp. i have seen a lot of change in corporate sentiment over the past few months...all of it positive...i always have and continue to keep my eye on what i see as the big three rambus keys. key # 1. intel intel could not have stroked rambus in a more positive way than they did at the idf. intel stated clearly that rambus is their long term memory choice. key # 2. dell dell announced at the idf that they plan to ramp rambus from a current 0% to a full 50% of their dram purchases in the next 9 months. key # 3. ibm ibm announced in june that they will "produce" and use rambus memory. big blue's support has enormous implications imo. rambus' continuing signing of licensees, coupled with continuing rdram product production announcements, and announcements of new rdram using products besides pc's are quite sufficient to justify my continued investing in this company. this is the timetable... sep 14 si tera announces a rmbs chipset for high speed networking. sep 17 sony announces pII using 32mb of rdram. sep 26 intel announces camino chipset for rambus. sep 27 dell announces rambus pc's for sale. oct 25 intel announces coppermine. oct 26 an array of rambus pc systems will be announced by all major oem's. late this year...intel announces a rambus server chip. mid-next year...rambus is firmly established. mid-next year...intel releases rambus laptop chipset. intel said no pc133 for laptops. this transition will be direct from sdram 100 to rdram. end of next year...intel announces timna. the rmbs enabled chipset for low-end systems. mid 2001...sdram is gone. rambus is in 100% of intel systems. this is my favorite egg finding tool. developer.intel.com unclewest gone fishing!