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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (24905)	9/4/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET NEWS SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC FORECASTS WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The holiday shortened week has really only one highlight--the Producer Price Index on Friday. Analysts can look forward to a busier week the following week, however, when the retail sales, CPI, and industrial production reports are scheduled to be released. -- Consumer Credit for July (dollar change, billions) Wednesday, September 8 at 3:00 p.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Jul99 Jun99 May99 Cons Credit +$5.5b +$2.0b to +$7.5b 14 -- +$2.8b +$11.7b Comment: Consumer credit is expected to rise $5.5 billion in July after rising only $2.8 billion in June. The strong selling pace of autos likely boosted borrowing, though higher interest rates likely held back some loan demand and revolving debt. -- Jobless Claims for week ended September 4 (change/level in thousands) Thursday, September 9 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Sep4 Aug28 Aug21 New Claims +1/290 +1/290 to +10/299 8 -- +4/289 -4/285 Comments: Initial claims are expected to rise 1,000 to 290,000 in the September 4 week, still low. -- Producer Price Index for August (percent change) Friday, September 10 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 PPI +0.4% UNCH to +0.5% 18 -- +0.2% -0.1% PPI Core +0.1% -0.1% to +0.2% 17 -- UNCH -0.2% Comments: PPI is expected to be up 0.4% in August after a small increase in July. While energy prices remained strong, food prices are expected to recover from a decline in July, as drought conditions affected some parts of the country. Excluding food and energy, PPI is expected up 0.1%, still contained. Analysts will watch the "pipeline" inflation measures closely after a 0.6% jump in intermediate goods (core +0.4%). -- Retail Sales for August (percent change) Tuesday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Ret Sales +0.8% +0.3% to +1.0% 11 -- +0.7% -0.2% Ex-Autos +0.4% +0.2% to +0.6% 11 -- +0.3% +0.1% Comments: Early forecasts for retail sales point to a 0.8% rise, with continued high energy prices boosting gas station sales and auto dealer sales still strong. Even excluding auto sales, consumer purchasing remains very strong, with estimates centering on a 0.4% rise. -- Consumer Price Index for August (percent change) Wednesday, September 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 CPI +0.3% +0.2% to +0.5% 11 -- +0.3% UNCH CPI Core +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% 11 -- +0.2% +0.1% Comments: Early CPI forecasts look for a 0.3% increase, with energy and food prices both up slightly. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices are expected to be up 0.2%, with sharp reversal in airline fares expected after July's 6.5% surge. Airlines cut fares in early August. -- Industrial Production for August (percent change) Thursday, September 16 at 9:15 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Ind Prod -0.1% -0.4% to +0.4% 9 -- +0.7% +0.1% Cap Util 80.4% 80.0% to 80.9% 9 -- 80.7% 80.3% Comments: Industrial production is expected to be tame in August after a very strong month in July. Estimates centered on a 0.1% decline, with capacity utilization at 80.4%, compared with 80.7% in July. Manufacturing continues to improve, with auto sales likely stronger than in July. Utility usage was still high in August, but likely softened from July. SOME TECHNICAL STATISTICS FROM MY DAILY SCAN FOR CLOSE 9/3: ratio 8-17-9 MACD buy signals to 12-25-9 MACD sells: 313 to 5 ratio 5-20 DEMA Price Phase buys to sells: 162 to 43 ratio 10-40 DEMA Price Phase buys to sells: 77 to 24 ratio 14d Wilder RSI buy signals to sells: 125 to 9 ratio 21d Stochastic buy signals to sells: 462 to 51 (note: also had a large ratio earlier in the week so many of the stocks made double bottoms in the 21d Stochastic this week) The ratio of AIQ buy signals to sell signals (5 day sums): 278 to 106 The ratio of signals confirmed by price-phase (5 day sums): 161 to 21 My general market/Dow/S&P scans show market emerging from oversold levels as evidenced by the above signals and by market index RSI-5 and TRIN-5 and other oscillators moving back into neutral and perhaps into overbought levels. The Nasdaq 100 is the opposite and is moving back into overbought levels including the signals on the individual stocks. The Nasdaq 100 is at 2506; the upper band of the 90% envelope is at 2516. The next trendline resistance for the NDX is about 2570. The Nasdaq Comp is at 2843; the upper band is at 2875. The Nasdaq Comp still has the old highs to contend with and the next trendline about that is approaching 3000. Both the Dow and the S&P still have previous reaction highs to clear --- the Dow at 11117 as noted by Favors. I suspect the next Favors and Ord commentary may come out over the weekend. Both called for the bottom this past week.