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To: Brian P. who wrote (141484)9/4/1999 2:59:00 PM
From: hdl  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
If it turns out the U.S. stock market is in a huge bubble, will Dell do worse or better than "the market" in the bursting of the big bubble?



To: Brian P. who wrote (141484)9/5/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: Mick Mørmøny  Respond to of 176387
 
To the conspiracy theorists there's some kind of gov't conspiracy to rob them of their wealth. For some reason, when these people buy stocks of companies they feel that they are not exposed to risk, volatility, changes of the equity market, etc.

To all those who invested correctly and prospered, they don't feel fried and cranky. They have confidence in themselves and in their money management abilities.

I'm not sure why that is and I don't have any theories. IMO, let's give credit where credit is due, whoever they are.

$$$

Who Deserves Credit for Prosperity?

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bill Clinton? George Bush? Alan Greenspan? Congress? Just who should get the credit for America's good times?

Democrats and Republicans, looking ahead to next year's presidential and congressional elections, are already trying to convince voters that their party did the most to bring about the current prosperity.

When economists instead of politicians are asked to supply an answer, they generally give the most credit to Greenspan and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve, for what they see as sure-footed handling of monetary policy.

But they also say President Clinton and former President George Bush deserve a share of praise, as do members of Congress. Congress was willing to support a string of budget pacts that, starting in 1990, first gained control of the soaring federal deficits and then, last year, pushed the budget into surplus.

The benefit from reducing government's borrowing demands comes in lower interest rates, which helps interest-sensitive sectors of the economy like autos and home construction. And just as importantly, lower rates help businesses: It costs them less to invest in new factories and equipment and enhance productivity.

Rising productivity, the amount of output per hour of work, is crucial to rising living standards because it allows businesses to pay their workers more without raising prices and setting off inflationary pressures.

Productivity increased by 2.2 percent last year, more than double the weak 1 percent average gains of the previous two decades.

While economists dispute whether this pickup will be long-lasting, no less an authority than Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes the pickup in productivity is real -- and even undercounted by government statistics.

As a result, the Federal Reserve has been willing to allow the unemployment rate to fall far below levels that once would have caused the central bank to worry about rising wage demands triggering higher inflation.

The Fed did begin nudging rates higher on June 30 in an effort to slow the economy a bit. But the Fed's action came only after the jobless rate had dipped to a three-decade low of 4.2 percent. That's far below the 6 percent level formerly considered the threshold when tight labor markets start pushing inflation higher.

So far the Fed's decision to let good times roll has not caused inflation problems. In fact, consumer prices last year rose by just 1.6 percent, the best showing in 11 years. Despite a big rebound in energy costs, prices this year are increasing by just over 2 percent.

The global currency crisis, depressing world demand for the past two years, also has lowered prices in the United States for oil, cars and other imports.

Economists who acknowledge a pickup in productivity are marveling at the nation's fortunate combination of low inflation and low unemployment.

''Government policy has played a role in the economy's stellar performance,'' says Mark Zandi, economist at Regional Financial Associates in West Chester, Pa., ''but we have also benefited from a good dose of just plain luck.''

nytimes.com