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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eli74 who wrote (14283)	9/4/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 27311

Eli, I think you are quite correct, an accumulator would not trumpet his position until he is finished accumulating. As a matter of fact, when an accumulator starts and pound the table, it is time to worry. We had an example in 1995 when Magelan's Vinik was pounding the MU table while unloading his position, the stock went from $95 to eventually under $30. What must be contended with, however is the fact that Daddy Warbuck is either few independent entities, or Daddy did not hold his position since by now he should have more than 5%. Well, actually, I think that he has until the 10th of the following month to report, so by September 10 we should be able to say there more than one Daddy, or Daddy buys cheap and then sells or use the stock to deliver against an established position. The recent increase in the short interest would be an indication against the last hypothesis, however, since massive delivery against the short would have negated the increase we observed. It is quite possible that the Daddies in the first two tranches misjudged the speed at which VLNC can deliver an order and like many, are holding for the time being a losing position. It does happen even to large successful fund managers. Zeev