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To: The Philosopher who wrote (37219)9/4/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 71178
 
Christopher, in theory you are right. But, with all due respect, probably most of the stocks you bought did not decline 30-50% the month after you bought them. I joined AAII, and read their materials. I spent months deciding what to invest in before I did it. I bought quality companies, too, and put most of it into Fidelity and Vanguard Mutual funds. Go look at the chart for the S&P 500, and the international markets, too, for July & August 1998. Now imagine you've just put $300,000 BEFORE TAX dollars in the market, hoping to make a good return and sell the stock in 1999, and THEN pay the 1998 income tax. Perfectly legal as long as you pay the estimated tax, which in my case was very little, as it was based on 1997 earnings. And then lose, what, $60,000? $100,000? in one month. You'd have to have balls of steel not to panic, if you were a newbie.

Yes, I was a poster child of what not to do. I freely admit it. Also happening at the time was my erstwhile partner dumping me while I was on vacation, and also developing a painful, crippling case of what turned out to be rheumatoid arthritis. All in the same month.

And I did buy, in October, and made back a lot of it.

And finally, it is my firm belief that this market is in full bubble mode, and it's gonna crash HARD. In this I have the support of Milton Friedman, John Kenneth Galbraith, and, I believe, Alan Greenspan. No bull market lasts forever. Your five year time horizon is unrealisticly short. The reliable research, e.g., Jeremy J. Siegel, uses a longer time frame, thirty years. I don't have a thirty-year horizon. Do you?