To: djane who wrote (7208 ) 9/5/1999 1:39:00 AM From: djane Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29987
Euroconsult on 'Iridium Effect' on Satellite Finance: Comment (via I* yahoo thread) Bloomberg News September 3, 1999, 9:12 a.m. PT Paris, Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Stephane Chenard, chief analyst at Paris-based industry consultancy Euroconsult, talks about the climate for financing satellites projects in the wake of Iridium LLC's recent bankruptcy filing. Euroconsult held a two-day conference here on satellite finance. Chenard spoke to Bloomberg there about the climate for satellite finance as well as issues including insurance and growth prospects. ``Other project sponsors in the satellites industry say yes, this (Iridium filing for bankruptcy projection in August) has made their life more complicated in trying to raise money. I think the major financial institutions recognize that Iridium's problems were largely specific to the way Iridium structured its business, its business plan, or even the terms of its bank loans. The same may apply to ICO (Ico Global Communications Ltd., which filed for bankruptcy protection Aug. 27) but we don't know the full story on these two bankruptcies yet. ``However, among the smaller investors, the bondholders, the pension funds, the other animals of the public money markets, suddenly the term satellite is a bit like the term real estate some time ago.' On the subject of whether there's even a market for satellite-based telephones offering global coverage, considering the big advances made in coverage offered by cellular telephones: ``The common wisdom is that Iridium is a failed experiment which may come out happily. The fact is, there was no rush on their terminals. There may be a market, but whether that justifies a $5 billion satellite investment is a different question. When Iridium was conceived in 1987, cellular coverage was very spotty. The satellite companies since have been showing maps purporting to show that about 95 percent of the world's surface would not be covered by cellular in 2000, but the cellular industry may have a billion subscribers within five or 10 years. The economies of scale that you get then, the level of investment in research and development are such that the cost of covering another square mile is falling like a rock. ``One example is Motorola, which a few years ago announced that by some clever software trick, they could triple the range of a cellular repeater -- meaning that your cell phone would still work within 120 kilometers of an area that has cellular service -- that eats away at the Iridium market. Little by little, it edges the satellite firms to an ever-tinier market of oil executives who travel to Antarctica.' On where growth prospects lie in the industry: ``Iridium and ICO have very high visibility now, though the story may change. In two or three years they become known as the two great company turnarounds. ``But the satellites industry still has very bright prospects in many different markets, from television distribution to public telephone in developing countries. So there are very many business opportunities. Next year alone we expect to see 41 commercial communications satellites launched. Most of these hopefully will generate profits. ``Right now there is a big window of opportunity for satellites to carry Internet traffic between the places where Internet content is produced --today mostly the U.S. -- to places where it is consumed, which may not be well served by communications networks because the communication operators of these countries have been caught unawares of the Internet's development. ``If you are surfing in, say, Malaysia, it is likely that
your Web page will come via satellite. How that will be the case, maybe not eternally, but right now in some parts of the world it is the biggest business opportunity by far for the satellite companies.' ``We've estimated the market over the next 10 years will be approximately in the area of $15 billion, plus maybe $30 billion for ground equipment to run these systems. It's a small compartment of the telecommunications industry.'