To: LarryCPA who wrote (3429 ) 9/5/1999 12:19:00 PM From: michael r potter Respond to
To some extent we were prescient then, and earlier in the spring. It was recognized that SFEs price was being driven by internet speculative mania, and that SFEs pricing bore little resemblance to either value, or even to the value Internet Capital Group would provide. We stated that the risks increased at each step of the way as ICGE came closer, and eventually became a publicly traded company, as there was less room for imaginations to run wild as details, and eventual pricing emerged. It was also mentioned that even though pricing may be distorted by the then present mania, one could still do well by watching the crowd psychology and trading technicals. It was a time of absurd and wonderful pricing-just as long as one did not get taken in by the hype, and traded accordingly. Not all the details were predicted with perfection, but the big picture was pretty much presented here from late Jan. on. A great and riveting time- I'm somewhat nostalgic already. The biggest single surprise to me is that here we are on Sept. 5th, Internet fever has snapped, and ICGE is out with a current market cap of $10+ Billion. Much higher than I expected in the current environment. Even though the overall fever has broken there have continued to be intense but narrow speculative areas that enjoy the spotlight for days or weeks, before the momentum moves on to the next narrow area. ICGE [B to B] is in the grips of this currently. It remains to be seen, how long it will last, if it intensifies [certainly possible], and what the after-effects will be. A lesser surprise is that SFE is trading at a discount to NAV, though, as detailed earlier, that situation is because of the $10B ICGE market cap., which many think excessive and possibly not sustainable. Hope you are all enjoying this long weekend. Mike
