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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (76587)9/5/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
>>I am not a good momentum player. <<
Glenn, so what? We have two of the best here, Mark and Olu. I'd just take their recommendations and jump on them.
Ps
The problem with Mark he seldom gives sell signs. Which could put you holding on to a stock that he knows is losing momentum.



To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (76587)9/5/1999 1:01:00 PM
From: Tom D  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 164684
 
Another factor is competition for the internet investment dollar.

When AMZN made its spectacular run in 1998, there were not very many "respectable" internet investment opportunities competing with AMZN. There was a supply-demand mismatch for "quality" internet stocks.

It is a different story now. Every time another ICGE comes along and garners a market cap of $10B (albeit on a small float), it is pulling investment dollars away from AMZN.

I have been studying Jacob Ryan, the manager of the Internet Fund from 12/97 thru 5/99. In this period his fund gained 562%, making it the most succesful mutual fund in history. Anyway, Ryan sold all his AMZN in March '99, and he does not invest in B2C eCommerce companies. He is moving on to internet sectors with better risk/reward ratios.

Not only does this sector suck (terrible margins and competition for the forseeable future), but who want to invest in a company which has already risen x30 since its IPO?

HJ Morris: I am a good Catholic and have taken many guilt trips. I have even done volunteer work as a doctor in homeless shelters for most of the last 8 years--how's that for guilt? But I have no guilt at all for my investment in AMZN.

AMZN is just a highly speculative internet stock. Its not a tobacco company, and it doesn't even inflict questionable business practices on the country, like MSFT and HOMS. The only questionable things it does are its failuures to disclose information to investors, like the equivalent of same store sales. This will hurt naive investors. But it only hurts people who "volunteer" to invest in it, like KG4. It almost reminds me of riverboat gambling: its sort of like a voluntary ignorance tax.

And if, in my arrogance, I am wrong about AMZN, I can live with it. I don't have any will will towards William and the other remaining bulls. AMZN just is not for me any more.

Best Regards,
Tom