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To: SAMS BONE who wrote (59683)	9/5/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: kendall harmon	Respond to of 120523

Mark Leibovit on NBR Friday: <<PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark Leibovit, editor and publisher of the vrtrader.com, formerly known as the Volume Reversal Survey. And welcome back, Mark. MARK LEIBOVIT EDITOR & PUBLISHER, VRTRADER.COM: Thanks, Paul. Always glad to be here. KANGAS: Today we certainly saw a reversal in stock prices from recent losses today, but the rally, was it really adequately accompanied by volume to make it meaningful? LIEBOVIT: Well, you know, it may be a bit of a distortion because we had the long Labor Day weekend. We did not see the volume, but it doesn't mean you can't get follow-through last week. KANGAS: But 530 million of the 650 million shares traded was up volume. LEIBOVIT: Correct. And we had some positive breadth. The reversing from the pattern yesterday. We had a lot of bears this week, and volume slowed a little bit to the downside in recent sessions. So I think you'll get some follow-through, but it did have that oomph that we really like to see. But we'll know more on Tuesday. KANGAS: All right now, according to your 1999 forecast model and you've been very good on these. Let's have a picture of it. We can see the Dow in the lower part in the brown and yellow and your model forecast for the rest of the year. And it looks like you're expecting something to go a bit lower in the months of September and October. LEIBOVIT: The model is still a little cautious here. You know, this is a very general indicator, but it's been tracking the market pretty nicely. So it says we're probably not out of the woods, and it probably says that the market's responding to a favorable economic report. And when the enthusiasm wanes, we're probably going to start settling back again. But it also says, as you can see a year-end rally. KANGAS: Yes, OK. So we're going to end higher on the year than where we are now is what you're saying. LEIBOVIT: Right. It's been pretty accurate. And at the moment, I would be trading the market. I wouldn't be sitting there thinking with confidence it's going to be straight up to year end. KANGAS: OK. When you were last with you on the 5th of February of this year the Dow was at 9304. You said 10000's in the cards; it certainly was. And you recommended some gold stocks like Newmont (NEM) at 19. It's now about 21. And Placer Dome (PDG) and Emisphere (EMIS) are both down a few points. But that brings us to the first question from one of our viewers by the name of Giro D'antonio, of Brooklyn, New York, who watches Us On WNET there. The question Is "do you think gold will ever glitter again ever?" LEIBOVIT: Well, ever is a pretty broad statement. The answer is yes, if it's ever. But I still like the gold shares. I still think they're under a little bit of accumulation. They're probably one of the most depressed groups around and the XAU gold and silver index to me looks like it could possibly trade into the high 90's and it's currently in the 60's. KANGAS; So you're staying with those three recommendations from last time? LEIBOVIT: I would hold the gold shares, yes. KANGAS: Now, at the same time in February you recommended one that just wiped out any losses at all, and that was Qualcomm (QCOM). It was 33. Now it's around 170. Are you still with it? LEIBOVIT: I still like Qualcomm. I think it's going to pull back here a little bit, Paul. But I think there's more coming in that stock, yes. KANGAS: TWA (TWA) was a bit of a clinker. It was at 6 7/8. Now around 4, 4 1/4. Are you in it? LEIBOVIT: If you're in it, I would hold it. I still think it's OK. KANGAS: OK and you liked Boeing (BA) at 37. It's around 45. And Electronics for Imaging (EFII) and that's up nicely. Are you still with those? LEIBOVIT: I still like those stocks, yes. KANGAS: Any new recommendations right now, Mark? LEIBOVIT: Well, all on a trading basis, but I like Hewlett-Packard (HWP) here. It's around 109. I think that could rally back to the 120's. Apple (APPL) has been running. I still think that's going into the mid 80s. Intel (INTC) probably the mid 90s. Phillips Petroleum (P) I like for the 60's. I like bamboo .com. (BAMB). That's a new issue for maybe 30. I like Navistar (NAV) which is a conservative name for the high 50's, low 06's. And then we go down the list. Microsoft still looks higher so there's a lot of good names out there. But I'm taking a shorter term perspective with these because of that model. KANGAS: I understand. LEIBOVIT: We get trading profits, we're going to be out. KANGAS: OK, no dearth of buy candidates there though in any case? LEIBOVIT: Remember now, the market's chasing after a few stocks, so it's all these big high-fliers that money seems to be following. KANGAS: We just have about 40 seconds left to answer our second viewer question from Manish Doshi, who watches us On KQED in San Francisco. He says, "do you think the dollar will slide against the yen for the next 6 or 8 months and could that spark a sell-off in the U.S equity markets?" LEIBOVIT: OK. Well, I have an interesting response for that. I think you should ignore what the dollar does. History says that the down currency does not necessarily affect the market of the country that it represents. And the classic example is the British pound, which was declining for decades relative to other currencies, but the financial index kept going higher. KANGAS: OK, Mark. So don't worry about it, in other words? LEIBOVIT: Don't worry. We worry too much about these financial stories....>> Source: nightlybusiness.org

To: SAMS BONE who wrote (59683)	9/5/1999 7:43:00 PM
From: kendall harmon	Respond to of 120523

William Wilby stock picks, sundays NY TIMES: <<An avid sailor, William L. Wilby has used maps and compass to navigate a sloop, an Island Packet 40, around the inlets of Chesapeake Bay. But in navigating the stock markets of the world, Wilby, manager of the $5.21 billion Oppenheimer Global fund, does not care for maps. "We buy stocks," he said, "not regions or countries." Indeed, Wilby, 55, a former Federal Reserve economist, has steered clear of the top-down economic analysis favored by many global equity managers when allocating assets around the world. "I'm a theme-based, out-of-favor growth investor," Wilby said from his office in the World Trade Center in Manhattan. The approach has produced superior results. Oppenheimer Global returned 20.7 percent, annualized, for the three years ended Aug. 31, according to Morningstar Inc., the Chicago financial publisher. That compares with 13.7 percent for its peer group of world stock funds, and 19.1 percent for the Morgan Stanley World index, Morningstar said. Forty-five percent of the fund is invested in Europe, 37 percent in the United States, 10 percent in Asia and the remainder around the globe. To pick stocks, Wilby relies on a simple credo: "We like to buy good companies in good businesses at good prices at the right time." Good businesses often fit into one of his four themes. The first is mass affluence, meaning the rise of the middle class in less-developed countries and the growing numbers of wealthy people in industrialized countries. The second is new technology, which runs the gamut from biotechnology to the Internet. The other themes are the aging of the global population, which leads him to health care and financial services, and corporate restructuring -- the continuing trend of companies to focus on their core businesses by divesting themselves of peripheral operations.>> Rest is at: nytimes.com CDN and QTRN are his U.S. picks

To: SAMS BONE who wrote (59683)	9/6/1999 7:55:00 AM
From: kendall harmon	Respond to of 120523

Ratacjczak on the markets <<Indicators suggest a pullback in stocks Donald Ratajczak - For the Journal-Constitution Sunday, September 5, 1999 September and October are the most tempestuous months of the financial markets. Indeed, since World War II, the average stock investor has lost money in September and suffered severe damage at least three times in October when prices plunged dramatically in a single day. The statistics are easy to measure, but is there some behavioral reason why financial markets are so heavily tested at this time of year? Several factors come to mind. Although production during the summer is not as weak as before air conditioning, the shutdown of whole industries for vacation time slows retail sales and tends to slow manufacturing activity. Even the technology sector struggles to earn significant money in the summer before the holiday season lights up its profit-and-loss statements. In other words, earnings are not as strong as after the spring or fall quarters. This year, earnings are especially suspect because labor costs have been rising rapidly while prices have not. Furthermore, the recent gross domestic product report indicated that those strong second-quarter earnings were more the result of inventory profits than gains from operations. Such profits do not persist. More significantly, production begins to rebound in preparation for holiday needs, but corporate cash flow lags. As a result, corporations need to borrow heavily before they can determine how successful their sales will be. This year, the borrowing is being accentuated by corporate desires to raise funds before Y2K problems become a concern to consumers. The borrowing calendar is huge in September and October, which may cause interest rates to rise even if the Federal Reserve decides to nap for the remainder of this year. Higher interest rates not only raise the cost of doing business --- they reduce the value of future earnings. As a result, stock values tend to fall when interest rates rise. The fact that interest rates have increased more than 15 percent this year while stock values are up almost 19 percent merely accentuates the pressure that further increases in interest rates will have upon stock values. Interest rates tend to rise in September or October, and stock markets need to be aware of this competition for the investment dollar, especially when stock investors have ignored rising rates in the past. An additional factor suggests that this September and October may spawn treacherous investing conditions. In Japan, stock indexes have been making new annual highs along with the U.S. markets. However, the yen has been increasing in value against the dollar. Therefore, the dollar returns for investments in Japan are much higher than in the United States. Investors, especially Japanese, have become aware of this. Not surprisingly, this has shifted some investment funds from New York to Tokyo. So far, most of the funds have come out of the bond market, but continued yen strength could begin to take some purchasing power from the stock markets in the United States. No one can be certain as to what will happen next in the equity markets. However, equities do not tend to continue rising in value when interest rates are rising significantly. Equities also tend to stall when prices for future earnings already are historically high, unless strong profits or falling interest rates can be seen ahead. Profits are not growing strongly. Indeed, operating profits did not grow at all in the second quarter, and the high labor costs during the summer suggest that little profit growth is likely then either. While interest rates may again decline after all the worries about Y2K funds are resolved, rates currently are headed upward. When you add to that the failure of stock values to adjust to a rising interest rate trend for much of this year, a financial hurricane cannot be ruled out. Saving a little investment powder for the holiday season and beyond, when interest rates may again begin falling, seems to be a prudent choice. DIrector of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University e-mail: ratajczak@gsu.edu>> Source: accessatlanta.com