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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Simba who wrote (67283)	9/5/1999 11:18:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

U.K. Housing Prices May Rise 35% In One Year news.bbc.co.uk U.K. Housing Prices Up 18% In First Half of Year infoseek.go.com

To: Simba who wrote (67283)	9/6/1999 8:26:00 AM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

>>I think I should have gone with my idea of shorting BBY and CC that I told you earlier. They seem to be taking a breather. << It is alleged that growth in the retail sector has topped out. Historically (past 3 years), growth was fueled by wild-ass consumer lending by the Banks at a 9% increase per year, 3 times the rate of growth of GNP. Since personal wages aren't increasing to compensate for faster increasing debt levels, the Magner theory of retail violence says that banks won't be able to maintain their current annualized lending increases to debt burdened consumers. Hence, reduced retail spending since consumers will have reduced borrowing capacity along with a negative savings rate. Does this mean retail economic violence? Hardly. Banks are loose with their underwriting so they'll continue to increase credit card lines to customers. And consumers can always tap their ever-increasing stock market gains or borrow against 401K plans for bigger dollar purchases. I view the current wave of meager same-store sales reported by many retailers to be just a little resting period coupled with oversatuation in some markets. The banks will be upping the credit lines of consumers in November for the Xmas season. The bull market begins and ends with bank lending and it ain't over until the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) sings. It's an election year and there is no singing allowed there. <g> Buy the dip on BBY below $50!