To: Eric L who wrote (39873 ) 9/6/1999 3:47:00 AM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
Eric, you are wrong! TDMA has rolled over and played dead. GSM has done so too. GSM is toast. 3G won't wait until the middle of the next decade. It will be rolling out in about 3 years - first in high data use markets and later in others. Meaningful revenue will be collected at that time. Maybe you meant 3G will just be getting really hot by 2005 and I suppose that's true if we mean by 'meaningful revenue] revenue something like 10% of the infrastructure spend. TDMA was to be the Telecom New Zealand digital standard and they have been operating a TDMA network for about 6 years. It has never amounted to much and despite an announcement of a very large expansion over a year ago, that idea has now been ditched and cdmaOne is to be installed - and quickly! TDMA and GSM have not yet been over-run and are adding subscribers very quickly. But they are quickly losing market share to CDMA which will be over 50m subscribers by year end. Wait until USA/Australia analogue systems are abandoned in favour of cdmaOne. That will see an acceleration of cdmaOne sales. Jiang and Bill are meeting next week. Expect a 'cdmaOne comes to China' answer out of that meeting! Buy your Q! stock now. Waiting for the announcement will be a bit late. Mqurice PS: Lindy, good url on expensive meals thanks! But they have it wrong at the Ayn Rand institute. Value did come from brainpower over the past 100,000 years, but that game is nearly over. Harvey was right in one way - The Web [It] is not the actual font of all knowledge, yet. But give it a decade or two and I think it will be the font of 99% of the knowledge and it won't be a font to benefit the men of the mind. It will be to benefit It! Okay, there'll be some negotiation and symbiosis. But I know who'll be driving the harder bargain. We'll say "Baaaaaaa" and It'll say "Here's a 5Q credit for some grass for you to eat, now, put some more stereoscopic digital cameras up around the place and get those rocket motors tuned up, I'm getting some of me off this dodgy piece of real estate." There is nothing special about people with a bit of slop in their heads which makes them good at chatting with other people and spearing the odd tiger in a collectivist defence of the tribe. They are still a pathetic consequence of some amino acids stringing together in a big daisy chain. Just another organic variation on a theme. But just as sheep feed those pretty smart monkeys, those pretty smart monkeys are going to end up feeding It. Not literally feeding It, but certainly maintaining the necessary 3D supplies for It. So, the Ayn Rand 'aren't we of the mind wonderful' shop will have to close and people will have to find ways of creating value for It. Which might look VERY totalitarian about how It thinks things should be run. People of genius might not rate too highly with It, having served their purpose of providing the blueprint of the new SiC/Photonics/Qomputing DNA equivalent. It will say, like any self-respecting offspring, "Thanks Pops, now if you could just get out of the way, I'll see you later. I can take it from here.".