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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: The Ox who wrote (50460)9/6/1999 3:45:00 AM
From: CpsOmis  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
A request to the thread:

We seem to have a number of core topics here. Lots of day to day discussion on short term tactical moves on individual stocks trying to beat the "herd"'s responses to various daily news reports. Either analysts upgrade/downgrades, earnings or reports of new well developments, fires political discord, boom/bust market reactions to fear/greed on individual stocks, etc. Then we have discussions involving long term strategic moves, as in the anticipation of "Boom 2000" (tm, DD Industries)(De' Dawg...lol) or fundamental shifts in supply (opec maneuvers, depletion) or demand (increased SUV's, NG use for electricity generation, and long term weather patterns)

Lots of intelligent talk talk here about DD, not as much info as I would like regarding fundamental oil stock analysis. Ok, so we may know "generally we have a company w/ highly levereged debt, or with b.s. assets on the book. For example, there was a very negative MEXP poster over on the Yahoo thread doing a major talk-down on the stock. He was saying that a lot of the larger companies buy "loser" wells with "life" of 12 to 13 years so they can pump up the look of their books, and that he made money buying and selling them. Frankly, I didn't understand what he was saying, but it was quite convincing.

(O/T to Slider: By the way, Slider, no offense to your celebrity here, but I think that guy was MUCH more convincing with his repeated negative remarks about dumping MEXP, and perhaps contributed to the sell-off much more than you. As the most vocal postitive hypster, admitting you held no MEXP I think made you the biggest target as some felt they had been "had")

So, a general challenge to the thread. Could those of you a bit more skilled in reading a balance sheet talk a bit more of financials, or recommend a "good read"? For example, when one says "stock ABC should trade in a range between $3 to $5", where is this coming from? I know there are multiples based on projected sales, and core value based on reserves, but are there some more precise formulas?

Perhaps I have been simply a lucky fool, as I have more than doubled my risk capital in the oil/NG arena since 3/1. But I have simply played the day to day zig-zags on these stocks, buying fear and selling greed. Average hold 30 days, with an occasional day-trade when some poor soul buys or sells from/to me at my GTC bottom-fishing prices on a market instead of a limit order. But, how do you know when a stock has "run to far-too-fast in either direction, unless you understand the appropriate trading range based on fundamentals?

Ultimately when the smoke clears, the market moves ultimately based on fundamentals of supply, demand, perceptions of this in the future, and the supply of money from investors looking for the highest return.

Can we have a bit of a discussion on these fundamentals and what individuals are doing when they "do" there "DD"?

Perhaps this would be of interest to many on the thread. (Or perhaps I am a rank amateur and need to go to the library!!!!)

Personal techniques, thoughts, ideas, all?

Regards,

CPS



To: The Ox who wrote (50460)9/6/1999 4:03:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Gang, Indonesia-can it be held together? You look at Foreign Minister Ali Alatas' bizarre comments in this article about the East Timor situation and you wonder- are the leaders of Indonesia really aware of what's going on out there and can they control the accelerating centrifugal forces in the Country?

About three months ago on the other far end of Indonesia, my friends were drilling an onshore well in Sumatra, in the area of Aceh where the Achenese rebels are active also seeking independence.

A large demonstration of Achenese passed the rig carrying banners and flags- the rig crew waived while the demonstration headed into the nearby village. At the same time an Indonesian military helicopter had been circling watching the goings on.

Shortly thereafter,the gunship swooped in on the village and literally shot the end of the village nearest the rig to pieces. The crew then abandoned the rig and high-tailed it out of there. Nothing was ever said on the news anywhere about the event but many must have been killed or wounded...

IMO Indonesia is racked with problems/violence, etc., yet Mssr Habibie and his in-office cronies like Ali Alatas seem more suited to be attending the Mad Hatter's Teaparty al a Alice in Wonderland than in handling the situation. You seriously have to wonder what will happen to Indonesian oil & gas production over the next few years....
ÿ
(Begin Article)
U.N. team ordered to Indonesia, East Timor crisis escalates
------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this story:

Mob rule

Police standby amid violence

Jakarta denies that militias are armed

------------------------------------------------------------------------
From staff and wire reports

DILI, East Timor (CNN) -- The United Nations Security Council has ordered an emergency diplomatic team to Jakarta in a bid to quell the violence that has wracked East Timor in the wake of a ballot on independence.

Amid accusations that Indonesia has done nothing to stop the rampaging pro-Jakarta militias that have forced thousands to flee, the U.N. mission will bring pressure to bear on the Indonesian government.

Security Council president, Peter van Walsum of the Netherlands, said the delegation would be made up of "no more than five" diplomats.

"The mission will discuss with the government of Indonesia concrete steps to allow the implementation of the ballot results," he told reporters after emergency closed-door consultations.

The move came as up to 150 United Nations personnel were evacuated from East Timor Monday morning.

No date was given for the mission, but council members said they hoped it would leave Tuesday. The composition of the mission is not yet set either.

Van Walsum said Indonesian authorities had welcomed the mission. The country's U.N. envoys contacted Jakarta during the council meeting.

But East Timorese Nobel peace laureate Jose Ramos Horta said the time for talk was over.

"There have been too many promises, assurances from Indonesia that have been all broken," Ramos Horta said.

Ramos Horta blames the Indonesian military for the ongoing violence in East Timor and has called on the U.N. to establish an armed force in the territory ÿ

He called for "a peace enforcement mission" to be dispatched by the U.N.

Mass evacuations were underway in East Timor on Monday as the territory was plunged deeper into a mire of violence that threatens the continued U.N. presence in the half-island territory.

The Australian military has moved transport aircraft into position to begin shuttling non-essential personnel back to a base at Darwin in northern Australia.

Pro-independence sources said at least 100 East Timorese were killed in two days of bloody unrest since Saturday's announcement that a U.N.-organized ballot on August 30 had recorded a 78.5 percent vote in favor of the territory's independence from Indonesia.

The U.N. supervised ballot came after 24 years of contested Indonesian rule.

Tens of thousands of people have already fled East Timor and neighboring countries and islands are preparing to deal with a massive refugee crisis that could see up to 100,000 people flee the territory.

An Australian defense official confirmed an evacuation plan had been launched.

"The numbers are not exactly set because we don't know exactly how many other Australian nationals may wish to come forward and travel back to Darwin," said Lieutenant-Colonel David Tyler.

Tyler said the Australian defense force would make several sorties into the East Timor capital Dili using C-130 Hercules transport aircraft.

"Indonesia has agreed to provide security...they are responsible for security on the ground," Tyler said.

Mob rule

East Timor's dream of independence faded in the early hours of Monday morning as pro-Indonesia militias swept through the streets of the provincial capital Dili, unchallenged by Indonesian authorities.

Witnesses said the militias had attacked the home of Nobel peace laureate and Roman Catholic Bishop Carlos Belo. No further details on the attack were available, but observers said the militias torched the Catholic diocese office as well.

There was also a report of a grenade being detonated outside the U.N. compound.

One western diplomat called the scene "organized anarchy" as frightened East Timorese tried to flee the bloodied island. Hundreds took refuge at Dili's U.N. compound and the Australian consulate -- the only two places deemed safe from the rampaging militias -- and thousands more sought shelter in other less secure buildings.

But the safety of those havens was uncertain as the militia reacted violently to the mostly Roman Catholic territory's overwhelming vote to seek independence from majority-Islamic Indonesia.

"There has been a lot of gunfire very close to our headquarters this afternoon," U.N. spokesman David Wimhurst said.

Journalists, U.N. staff and East Timorese rushed to evacuate the island Sunday. The militias had shut down East Timor's ports Sunday afternoon, preventing at least two ships from docking to take refugees on board: Rumors flew that they would close the territory's airport Monday.

A team of Indonesian ministers flew into Dili earlier Sunday to hold talks on the increasingly chaotic situation in the former Portuguese colony. Indonesia's military chief, Gen. Wiranto, held talks with military leaders while Foreign Minister Ali Alatas told U.N. commissioners that the violence stemmed from complaints that last week's referendum was unfair.

"Alatas said the reason all this violence is taking place is because everybody is so upset about the electoral process," Wimhurst said.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard leveled the blame at Indonesia's military.

"There is no doubt in the world Indonesia is not fulfilling its obligations to maintain law and order (in East Timor)," said Howard.

"There can be no excuse for the Indonesian army turning a blind eye to what is occurring. The best will in the world can not overlook or excuse the fact that since Saturday morning things have been allowed to get out of control," Howard said.

The U.N. mission in East Timor, which conducted the referendum, agreed to hold a news conference Monday in Jakarta to address the complaints.

Wimhurst also said that international calls for a peacekeeping force to halt the violence were impractical. The Indonesian authorities, he said, must take action immediately to end the violence.

Police stand by amid violence

Indonesia has thousands of soldiers and police in East Timor, but they have been accused of arming the militias ÿ

Indonesian Army and police units were scattered through Dili, but they did not challenge the militiamen, who carried homemade guns, machetes and military weapons. Many areas were largely deserted, and several major buildings in Dili were ablaze.

About 25,000 refugees had taken shelter at churches, a key police station and other locations. Many more had taken to the surrounding hills to escape the militias.

Gunshots were heard throughout the night, and sources in Dili said attacks were still going on in some parts of the town Sunday. The number of casualties from the shootings was unknown, though a spokesman for pro-independence forces said a dozen people had been killed in Dili's turbulent Becora district. That information could not be immediately confirmed.

Portugal's representative to Jakarta, Ana Gomes, said she had been told more than 100 people were dead.

"(The militias) want the observers, the journalists and (the United Nations) to abandon East Timor to massacre the East Timorese people," Gomes said.

Jakarta denies that militias are armed

But an Indonesian military intelligence officer said he had not received any reports of fresh casualties, and the armed forces' chief spokesman denied that the militias were armed.

"There is no report that the militia are carrying guns and walking on the street," Brig. Gen. Sudradjat, the chief spokesman for the armed forces, told The Associated Press in Jakarta.

Indonesian authorities appeared to be ignoring the violence, refusing to acknowledge international media reports, videotapes and photographs of armed militia roaming the streets of Dili.

Indonesia has thousands of soldiers and police in East Timor, but they have generally stood by as militias attacked their rivals -- and increasingly, the unarmed U.N. mission. The security forces have been accused of arming and backing the militias. They deny the allegations.



To: The Ox who wrote (50460)9/6/1999 10:19:00 AM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
To anyone: Any sites for checking oil prices on days when US markets are closed?