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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (50487)	9/7/1999 2:45:00 AM
From: dfloydr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Indonesia/China : from Stratfor: The following is the summary paragraph from a very interesting and disturbing analysis of what may be coming in Indonesia and China: What's going on in your world? Find Out. Visit Stratfor's Global Intelligence Center stratfor.com ___________________________________________ OTHER FEATURES ON STRATFOR.COM Why East Timor Matters stratfor.com East Timor: In the Face of Violence, Who Will Act? stratfor.com __________________________________ STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update Weekly Analysis September 7, 1999 Indonesia's Crisis: The Lesson for China Summary: Indonesia, as we have long predicted, is coming apart. This process has a great deal of relevance to China, whose army, like Indonesia's, was accustomed to making lots of money and now resents the fact that the good times are over. In both countries, making money became the basis for military loyalty to the regime, which in turn needed the army as guarantor. But in China, as in Indonesia, the military is no longer making money, and China has banned its officers from business. Now Beijing is creating international tension to soak up the military's energy and resentment. But in the end, the guarantor of the regime can bring its death, leaving warlords poised to take power.