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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (28814)	9/6/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: grok	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

RE: <I'm pulling Microsoft's own data, which said that 64M is the recommended system, and that it may require less.> The NT folks at MS are still surly about how much memory their product requires ever since they first launched NT in the midst of the last dram shortage. They can recommend whatever they want but box makers won't ship their products that way. I've got a 64 MB NT4 machine in my office and I've been after my IT people to add memory because NT4 sucks with 64 MB. (I've recently got a W98 machine in my den with 256 MB and that is really nice!) You can be sure that W2K boxes will ship with at least 128 MB if not much more. (Assuming they can get the dram of course.)

To: Dave B who wrote (28814)	9/6/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: you assumed that other vendors would be coming aboard... That's right, if samsung were to max out at 3 million die a month, it would work out to half the 750K RIMMs I am expecting. If they do indeed double that number, then there will be considerably more rambus available. I've said before that I missed that doubled amount that Samsung is planning. ...Why are you certain that market share for rambus will mirror market share for SDRAM? Samsung is the only one close to mass production right now, though it looks like Micron will be coming along soon. For some time, Samsung will have a larger share of the rambus market than it does in the overall memory market. You become acusatory at the suggestion that market share might change - unless one is speaking of an increase in the share of rambus, of course. ...On the memory requirements for W2k - if you think that more than 5% of the systems that ship with W2k will have less than 128 meg of RAM, well, I don't know what to say except that you are perfect as a rambus long. The vast majority of NT systems ship with 128 to 256 - installed memory will average higher for W2k. Cheap notebooks may initially ship with less - just as many win 95 and 98 notebooks once shipped with 8 or 16 meg of RAM, but those manufacturers will be angering their customers. >>if the "average" PC has 128M... Not the average PC, the high end PCs that are potential candidates for rambus. Neither moderately priced PCs nor large servers will be using rambus next year, particularly given your logic that all machines are shipped with the minimum memory suggested by Microsoft. Dave, with rambus expected to ship as nothing smaller than 128 meg per rimm next year, my statement that 128 to 256 will be standard supports rambus. According to your logic, no one would buy rambus because they'll want no more than the "Microsoft Recommended" 64 or fewer meg! I won't call your statements "frightening", but they don't seem to be particularly consistent, either. Dan

To: Dave B who wrote (28814)	9/11/1999 4:50:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Dave: Let's get back to RMBS earnings musings. I have enough of silicon "NAP" time discussions to make me refreshed again. in your post you say "I said that Samsung's market share would be closer to their actual market share of 20% (although I even gave them the benefit of the doubt a little and said 33%). " I think you deserve an award for hitting Samsung market share on the head because in link: semibiznews.com ... "Being the first to mass-produce the device, the company expects to capture at least 60% of the world market for the high-speed devices. Samsung Electronics officials expect sales of the second-generation RDRAM to reach $250 million this year. Next year, when other DRAM vendors enter the market, Samsung still plans to hold at least 35% of the market and to achieve sales in excess of $2-to-$3 billion." You also state the RDRAM sales could be $10 billion in 2000. Samsung's statements puts the range between $2 billion of Samsung is only vendor producing RDRAM and $9 billion if they only have 35% share while producing $3 billion in RDRAM. Starting to believe those people buying @ 90 are those who are going longer than those who are covering a short position. There is not enough incentive for a short opened @ 92-93 to cover at 90. That is why they are getting a little hot under collar. john