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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (8400)	9/7/1999 7:48:00 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 15132

Wally, I suspect that comparison wouldn't look any different if you compared the 1985-1987 period with any 32 month period which ended over the last few years. Does anyone know a site that will do this? Jay

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (8400)	9/7/1999 10:12:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally: Definitely a strong positive correlation from a statistical sense but one would have to run similar tests with respect to other years where there was no crash to see the correlational relationship, all this being done from a purely statistical point of view. With that said, there are some similarities today fundamentally with the market in 1987. And one can argue to distinguish this period from 1987. I am not sure if this analysis would get us anywhere. After all is said and done, we know that we are entering a weak seasonal period historically where the sudden and dramatic reassessment of equity valuations (crowd behavior inflection point) is more prone to happen.