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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PDL who wrote (3672)	9/7/1999 12:21:00 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

Some comments on the safety factors I've applied to each product. This was posted on the Yahoo board in response to a comment: -------------------------------------- Good point about the safety factors. They do seem a bit on the high side. I have difficulty balancing the potential upside surprises with the probable success of each product. I noted on the club board that I don't include positive surprises (ie. SEPR marketing an improved Meridia or a number of other products on their own, higher royalty rates than 8% due to SEPR's strengthening position down the road, ICE's taking greater than the market share of the parent drug due to improvements or new indications, etc.) Because the model doesn't really account for potential good news, I've tended to be less conservative with the products and the business model that is currently established. It's tough to predict the future, but with each clinical trial and each partnership the questions will get answered and the model will get closer to reality. The resolution of the Allegra dispute was a pleasure to work into the model since most questions related to Allegra have been answered. It's a slam dunk. SEPR will receive at least $40 million per year once the US royalties start to roll in. I'm looking forward to SEPR filling in the rest of the blanks. Dave