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Non-Tech : Ashton Technology (ASTN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: AJ Berger who wrote (2533)9/7/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: mst2000  Respond to of 4443
 
AJ - Irrespective of where you bought the stock, or I should say, at what price, it is either worth $9 per share today or it isn't - or putting it differently, cost basis is not as important as whether it should, as of today, be accumulated, sold or held at this price. $9 is the price at this moment because the lack of revenue (which would kill most stocks) is offset by the perception that revenues are just around the corner, and good things are going to happen down the road -- people are investing on the hope that the future will pan out for Ashton. If I thought $9 was the highest the stock is likely to go, I would sell it (even though my cost basis is around $4) - because what's the point of holding it if it isn't going to increase in value? Why not take profits (or cut losses) if it is going to do that badly?

The thing is, anybody hearing management's presentation at the Shareholders Meeting could not help but feel that there are some incredible things that ATG will be right in the middle of over the next 2-3 years; that management is very capable and knowledgeable and aware of this evolution in their industry, and is anticipating the future direction of the industry; that reaction to VTS has been very positive; and that what we have seen thus far is only the very tip of a large iceberg that will continue to emerge (and will bring the stock price up to many multiples of the current $9). That to me is more important than the pronouncement that AG and Dr. Suess are legends in their own minds who never err.

I think Don's point was that the shorts who denigrate the stock by talking about how successful their short has been are missing the point - which is that ATG either is or is not a promising company which will achieve values that make $9 per share look like a bargain soon enough. My posts have tended to focus on the intrinsic aspects of the Company and its business plan, not on the day to day price. When Don got in at approximately $2 per share, a lot of things ASTN stockholders now take for granted were very much up in the air. He was not hurt by that decision.

IMHO, those getting in now at $9 or less will make out very well on their investments over the next 2-3 months, and especially well over the next 2-3 years. If you have a $12-13 cost basis, you are not that far from being in the black again -- as quickly as it went from $13 to $9, it could go right back up to $13, because of developments in the implementation of their business plan that will translate to bottom line revenues and the public perception of value. If you subscribe to the Auric/Dr. Suess fantasy that this is not a real company and that they (AG and Suess) are never wrong, rather than looking at the company on its own intrinsic merits (or lack thereof), are you really better served as an investor?

MST



To: AJ Berger who wrote (2533)9/7/1999 7:10:00 PM
From: don denson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4443
 
AJ:

I think MST covered things pretty well regarding your comments earlier.

Let me tell you that I join the other longs in pounding the shorts back at every opportunity. After almost 9 years of active trading, I do not short as I do not have the temperament (you normally find me on the pass line at Binion's for the same reason). I like the buzz of being on a winning team, and I do not enjoy making money off others misfortune (maybe you agree with that notion).

However, in my zest to pound away, I misplaced my judgement regarding the readership here and where most of us are at cost-basis-wise in astn. That was inappropriate on my part.
I'm in at the basis stated due to some dumb luck, and help from my broker buddy in Houston (who sold out early on and still regrets it deeply), and as far as that goes, am still aboard due to the helpful hints MST regularly posts. Can you imagine understanding the depth of the ATG business plan without his counsel? I can't. In large part, the complexity and newness of it all explains our current predicament quite well (and allows the shorts, here and elsewhere to dance freely among us). Hence, I feel the "sincere need" to pound the bastards back whenever possible.

Again, my apologies are extended for the unintended meaning in my comments. My greatest hope is that today's investor in astn sees his stake climb 450% in due course! We will succeed!

dd