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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. P. who wrote (25016)	9/7/1999 2:26:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

JP-- a few thoughts, RE: your post on those who are bearish being wrong. i wouldnt count the bears and naysayers out just yet. while it is true that in certain areas, say publishing for example, there are tremendous profits to be made, most retailers are going to have a very difficult time of it and will survive only by becoming specialty stores that offer exclusive lines of merchandise. think about what happens to AMZN or B&N if ingram or another large distributor decides to get into the business themselves. the biggest problem i have with the everything is rosy-this is the new economy scenario is that it forgets the fits and panics that occured during american industrialization. during the last half of the 19th century, we had one depression after another... and the hot securities of that time... the railroad bonds... ended up with little or no value. you should never forget that while it can be very good, it can also be very bad. granted, LT we appear to be in an entropic state (i.e., things always get better). however, the potential for some very violent displacements is very possible. for example, and one everyone automatically discounts, we still have too many nukes on this planet. while i am not really terrified of the prospect of being in a fireball one afternoon<G>, i am very concerned about the real and devastating effect a high yeild weapon in LEO would have on the electronic infrastructure of this country. true, our machines and devices have helped us in myriad ways. however, they are also a very real achilles heel due to their fragility. as a side note... originally the internet was designed to withstand a nuclear war. however, that was when all they thought would happen were the bombs being dropped on cities and military installations all at a time when the understanding of EMP was very incomplete. what happens when every circuit in the servers and routers is fused? good luck to all, trey

To: J. P. who wrote (25016)	9/7/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: russet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

To dismiss lessons learned in the past, and think the present is somehow different, is what you seem to be alluding to. I can't jump into your future, without looking where I leap. I certainly did not say that technology does not push the market up. I believe I alluded to quite the opposite. But you have advanced our discussion, so I'll add some points. Many great visions of the future have been dashed because the world was not ready for them yet. Living in North America (I assume), you can have a very distorted view of where the rest of the world is, in their ability and want to, adopt the new technology. If earnings don't improve in the internet, and quickly, I think that sector could start sliding down and stay there for a decade. Many countries will not let an American internet concept, into their countries. They will demand national content and control. Many international competitors will jump in,...many will be subsidized by their respective governments. That is a lesson of the past. That could put a cap on the future profits of many North American high tech companies. Must admit, my main point in my 1920's reference, was that the Fed was deemed to be able to save the market from collapse, and technological advancements of that time were the engine of that bull market as well. Those two parallels apply to the present market as well. So the radio and the airplane have been replaced by advanced computer technology, and the internet. You assert it's different now. I remain on the fence, but never the less, mainly invested in this market,...just not fully invested in the internet. Another lesson from this time. Some people had to wait 30 years for their stocks to break even. Like RCA.