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To: shaun gehring who wrote (15158)	9/7/1999 6:28:00 PM
From: matt gray	Respond to of 29970

Maybe this is an issue of time horizons. Lets look realistically over the next 5 years. Customer drops [coax feeds] are owned by a single MSO. Also the CATV attachment rights to the poles are owned by one MSO. So in effect the access to the customer premysis is one MSO. The multiplexing or resale of access may as you say occur but would require the MSOs to unbundle their services much the same way government regulated monopolies like the RBOCs are unbundling their loops. This could be done if the open access rules are put in place. Still it is unlikely that MSOs will compete inter region since they figured out long ago that no business case exists for multiple cable systems in one geographic region. You could start a business and probably get rapid Public Service Department approval for an optional/rival cable system but its likely you would go broke. Subsequently it is likely that Road runner and @Home will remain in exclusive service regions unless they merge.

To: shaun gehring who wrote (15158)	9/7/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: matt gray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

at best fiber optic is one amplifier away from the customer. Technology wise accessing fiber to the home isn't in the cards for CATV. However it may be if you are a business. Fiber to the business is the real deal. IMO the real technology issue is the DOCSIS issue. IF DOCSIS can accelerate cable modem deployment this will increase penetration rates. If @home can beat its penetration rate of 1 million subscribers by year end then all this funk about open access will be lifted. CATV will be able to tie open access up in court for a couple of years. By this time high churn will cause open access to become a moot point. Cable will have captured too many subscribers. Once a customer is churned, inertia will take over. Nobody will churn to another provider unless they gain a significant advantage. Since their is no other realistic techology other than xDSL that can compete, they'll get their share of subs. If subscribers churn away from AOL and other small ISPs because of improved installation rates I'm betting you'll have made your money on ATHM stock. Installation rates and the technology that surrounds this issue is were the rubber meets the road.