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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2062)	9/8/1999 4:23:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

There are a whole lot of bits involved in 1 Mbps data transfer, Maurice... the cost issue hasn't even been addressed yet. All the current 3G discussion seems to revolve around applications. They said ten years ago that digital television would replace the old standard by 2000. We have about three months left for that to happen. Pricing is one of those real world issues that will have a major impact on how quickly 3G spreads. There are no guarantees that the global 3G subscriber base will hit even 10 million people by 2004. Whose friend is this "trend" thing, anyway? Wouldn't you say that the companies which can increase their global handset or mobile network market share by at least one percentage point during 1999 are riding the wireless "trend"? I know four putative candidates for the handset share expansion - Siemens, Motorola, Ericsson, and Nokia. In addition, only one or two Asian companies might manage even this relatively modest goal. I'm pretty sure what you're going to respond to this, Maurice; go ahead and say it. We'll return to this topic next winter, when the new market share estimates come out. The most common mistake people make with Motorola and Nokia is to assume that CDMA is some kind of Magic Kingdom where different laws apply. In reality, economies of scale apply to displays, antenna technology, battery technology, etc. across the spectrum of TDMA, GSM and CDMA. Same goes for building brand awareness, managing production ramp-ups and making a wide range of accessories available. Does this sound mundane? Can boring stuff like making sure components are available in sufficient quantities really matter in the glittery world of New Economy visionaries? I have this spooky premonition we may return to these three issues later. Selling only one standard products in multi-standard markets is like trying to compete in the car market by making only SUV's - nobody has managed that yet. Tero