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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8412)9/7/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
Justa, let's see, if all the Fed guys talk hawkish and Summers says a weak dollar is important to keep exports competitive I would guess the market might drop tomorrow<g>

Marc



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8412)9/8/1999 6:34:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
** Labor Shortage in High Tech ** : Yep, if HR can't find them, they can't hire them and non-farm payrolls don't grow.

edtn.com

Tech sector grapples with costs of
labor shortage

By Bolaji Ojo
Electronic Buyers' News
(09/07/99, 12:09 p.m. EDT)

Heavily traveled and maddeningly clogged up with rush- hour
traffic, California's Interstate 85 is one of the main arteries
connecting south San Jose to the heart of Silicon Valley.

It is also home to Xilinx Inc.'s latest recruitment tool, a huge
billboard with advice for commuters stuck in nail-biting traffic:
"While you're waiting, think about your future." The telephone
number printed boldly on the billboard knocks off any pretensions
to altruism in the message.

Welcome to the tough world of human-resource management in
the United States, where a low 4.2% unemployment rate has
turned the simple task of filling job vacancies at electronics
companies into a full-fledged lobbying effort.

It's a world Chris Taylor, top recruiter and human-resources boss
at Xilinx, knows very well. The billboard on I-85 helps remind
departmental heads who badger her for assistance filling dozens of
vacancies at the San Jose company that she and her team are
doing their best.

In the past six months, Taylor has doubled the number of
employees in Xilinx's human-resources unit and jacked up the
company's employee-referral bonus as high as $5,000 for
specialized or urgent openings. Despite these steps, Xilinx still has
about 100 vacancies, although the dedicated phone line written on
the billboard has been ringing ceaselessly since the advertisement
was introduced a few months ago.

"We're experiencing difficulty hiring skilled employees, especially
those with software, IC-design, and information- management
skills," Taylor said. "We even have problems getting temporary
staff."

Xilinx is not alone. The labor pool in the United States is fast
drying up, and the growing scarcity is a major threat to continued
expansion of the economy, according to economists who
described the shortage as a potential source of wage inflation.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS), employers in high-tech sectors should expect a tighter
labor market.

"Projections for the 1996--2006 period show high-tech and
related employment growing more than twice as fast as
employment in the economy as a whole-32% compared with
15%," said Daniel Hecker, an economist with the BLS. "For the
same period, high-tech employment is expected to account for
29% of all projected growth."

Nowhere is the problem more keenly felt than in Silicon Valley,
where approximately 6% of positions are currently unfilled,
according to a research report by Silicon Valley Network. The
report indicates that openings in the area can go unfilled for up to
six months.

As a result of the tight market and raiding by competing
employers, the turnover rate in Silicon Valley is between 20% and
30%-well above the national average of 13% to 18%. What's the
cost of this to Silicon Valley companies? Between $3 billion and
$4 billion in lost productivity, postponed expansion, and hiring
costs, according to Silicon Valley Network. The costs nationwide
could be in the multiple of billions.

And OEMs are not faring any better in the job market than
smaller, less-prosperous upstarts. In fact, the reverse is often the
case. Employees are apparently no longer eager to work for a
company simply because it's big or better-known-or even just for
good pay.

Other issues are upstaging these factors in the minds of employees,
who now rate such factors as growth opportunity, increased
responsibilities, stock options, and the chance to prove their mettle
above the stability offered by bigger companies.

"Typical hardware vendors now have to compete with
e-commerce companies, and they don't understand why what
worked last year is no longer working," said Brenda Rhodes,
founder and chief executive of Hall Kinion & Associates Inc., a
San Francisco recruiting firm. "They suffer from not being seen as
glamorous, and in addition, the Internet makes it possible for
people to migrate and live wherever they want and where they can
buy homes."

The result is that even big PC OEMs are losing middle-level
managers to small start-ups in the Internet sector, said Ken Reed,
president of TKO International, San Jose.

Some have fared better than others. Cisco Systems Inc., for
instance, employs more than 20,000 people worldwide and
according to spokesman Steve Langdon, has been fairly successful
at recruiting and keeping employees. Cisco's success was due to a
decision by the company to shed the unglamorous image of "just a
router company," Rhodes said. The new image is that of a nimble,
technologically advanced, 21st century Internet company.

"Why else would Cisco advertise on television to a mass audience
that doesn't necessarily buy routers?" Rhodes said. "Over half of
the traditional hardware and software companies are reshaping
their image."

In addition, mergers and acquisitions now have a predatory nature,
according to Xilinx's Taylor. When Xilinx acquired Philips
Semiconductors' CPLDs and XPLA design unit recently, it also
gained 45 new employees-among them engineers and designers.
Xilinx concedes that the employees made the deal even more
attractive. "We continue to look for acquisitions that make
business sense and offer needed employees," Taylor said.

With the labor market tight, wages are beginning to inch higher,
and although this has not been reflected in the latest U.S.
government statistics, recruiters said anecdotal experience
indicates high-tech wages are up.

"Every study that I read says wage inflation is not happening,"
Rhodes said. "But it's not uncommon for us to see a 15% to 20%
rise in pay when people change jobs."

Meanwhile, U.S. companies are beginning to draw some
competition for top- level employees from the Asia-Pacific region,
particularly from Taiwanese semiconductor companies that are
aggressively raiding U.S. companies for consultants in a bid to
raise their productivity level.

"All the big Taiwanese companies are doing it and pulling people
from AMD, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, and other big U.S.
companies," Reed said. "When a foreign electronics company
needs a consultant with as much as 15 years experience, where do
they go to find people like that? The U.S."



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8412)9/8/1999 6:41:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Respond to of 15132
 
Tales of $ 200,000 a Year Plumbers from USA Today

Blue collar can mean big pay

By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY

Shortly after graduating from college, office-supply salesman Trenton
Malm walked into an electrical contracting company looking to land a new
client.

Instead, employees there sold him on a new career. They gushed so
exuberantly about pay and job advancement that Malm quit his job and
decided to learn a trade.

Four years later, he has no regrets. Malm, 29, is among tens of thousands
of skilled workers getting top wages and perks like stock options and
signing bonuses that once were showered on corporate executives.

Many blue-collar workers now are outearning white-collar employees as a
blizzard of construction activity boosts demand for plumbers, painters,
electricians and other tradespeople.

Construction workers have seen hourly wages soar about 20% since
1993. Plumbers in some places earn nearly $200,000 a year with
overtime. And people are quitting desk jobs because they can earn more
working with their hands.

"A lot of kids coming out of school don't even realize this possibility
exists," says Malm, a journeyman electrician and superintendent for
Denver-based Quality Electric, the company he tried to sell office supplies.
"The projects are nonstop, and they're building buildings faster than we
can keep up."

Malm, who just finished building his own home, earns about $60,000 a
year plus bonuses - more than twice what he made selling office supplies.
He also gets profit sharing, a 401(k) retirement savings plan and health
benefits.

The Labor Department says median weekly earnings (half made more, half
less) last year topped $780 for a tool-and-die maker and $749 for
someone who repairs and installs telephones. That's more than the median
earnings of biological and life scientists ($739), computer operators
($513), psychologists ($679) and insurance sales people ($629).

At $594 a week, heating, air-conditioning and refrigeration mechanics earn
more than insurance adjusters, examiners and investigators ($522).

And in areas where shortages of skilled labor are especially acute,
incomes are far higher than the median.

The good life

'We've got electricians making between $60,000 and $80,000 a year,
and we still can't fill the positions," says Rex Wiederspahn, president of
Quality Electric in Denver. "It's good money and a good lifestyle."

That lifestyle is made possible by several trends:

The economy, in its ninth year of expansion, has created an
insatiable demand for skilled labor.

In 1998, there was an estimated $300 billion in new residential
construction, according to the National Association of Realtors.

"So many of these jobs are driven by the construction industry,"
says David Mustard, an assistant professor at the University of
Georgia's Terry College of Business in Athens. "I've seen kids drop
out of college to take these jobs."

Employers have to offer good pay and benefits because the tight
labor market means workers are hard to find.

Among construction workers, the unemployment rate was 6.7% in
July, compared with 10% in 1996.

Blue-collar jobs have been dogged by an image problem that puts
off potential recruits, making it that much tougher to ease the labor
crunch.

"It's a crying shame," says Bill Beekman, a representative of
Plumbers Local Union No. 3 in Denver. "You're looked down on
just because you have dirt on your hands."

But Laura Price, 37, says her kids look up to her. She's earning about
$100,000 a year in pay and bonuses as a project manager at
TDIndustries, a Dallas-based mechanical and electrical contracting firm.
She also gets company stock, a 401(k) plan, three weeks of vacation, and
health benefits.

Her 8-year-old daughter is impressed that Mom uses a mobile phone,
laptop computer and beeper; her teen-age son thinks it's cool that she
drives a truck and wears a hard hat.

"The opportunity is great, but a lot of folks don't give this industry much
thought," she says. "There's so much freedom, so much flexibility. I would
encourage my kids to do it."

Her company also pays for education. It's picking up tuition for employees
pursuing masters' degrees, and there are few restrictions: One worker
took guitar lessons, and TDIndustries paid the bill.

Calling the shots

Many trade workers are calling the shots these days. Instead of working
long hours or agreeing to undesirable assignments, they're demanding -
and often getting - more flexibility and concessions.

"Young people are demanding things like time with family. Overtime is a
bad word today," says Dan Mosser, vice president for education and
workforce development at Associated Builders and Contractors.

Some construction workers won't put in more than 40 hours a week.
Electricians are in such short supply that some employers try to steal
competitors' workers. Some plumbers, emboldened by the demand,
charge nearly as much as doctors who make house calls.

Says Steve Reynolds, who runs the service department at Benicia
Plumbing in Benicia, Calif.: "They can ask for what they want. We're
having to pay more because of the shortage. Money talks."

Associated Builders and Contractors estimates it would take 240,000
workers to ease the skilled labor shortage in the construction industry.

Of course, not everyone is striking it rich, and how much someone earns
can depend strongly on where they live and what they choose to do.

But opportunity abounds. Many blue-collar workers also are capitalizing
on the strong economy by starting their own service businesses.

Chris Roberts, 32, graduated from Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va.,
with a business degree and got a job washing cars five years ago. He's
turned that into a car-detailing business in Falls Church, Va., that grosses
about $110,000 a year.

"I wasn't expecting that. I got 40 to 50 new customers this year. It's
blossomed," says Roberts, owner of The Right Touch Detailing.

Joseph Fagan, 42, is a plumber in Stanhope, N.J. He makes $60,000 to
$80,000 a year.

The money is well earned. Fagan says it takes years of apprenticeship and
long hours. And the job is rarely easy: He once found himself faced with a
rubber Gumby doll wedged up a bathtub faucet.

"It requires about the same commitment as college, but after that, the sky's
the limit," Fagan says.

"You can make a good living at it. But as a small business, you have to
make an awful lot of money before you start making money."

Those running service businesses are finding they must give workers the
kind of benefits white-collar workers have been enjoying for years.

At TDIndustries, new hires get gift certificates for safety clothes, and field
workers get free jeans and shirts. Foremen can earn up to $80,000 a year,
while senior project managers can take home $150,000 or more, plus
benefits. Employees, called partners, can get stock ownership and
participate in the company's 401(k) plan after their first 90 days.

"I started 46 years ago as a helper in air-conditioning service, and it's as
good as I've ever seen it," says Ben Houston, president of the contracting
firm.

"By the time a lot of these partners are 25, they're making a lot of money.
It's first class."





To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (8412)9/8/1999 8:12:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
Justa, Interest rate contagion spreads across the Pond <g>

bloomberg.com

-

PPI Friday, CPI following Wed., CIBCR on 10/1, FOMC on 10/5....

As you noted, The Fed traveling road show continues......

After the FOMC perhaps the market focus can move off eco. data/interest rates (for a few minutes) & on to 3Q earnings releases which will then start.

Many analysts think the pre-earnings release warnings (which are starting) will be fewer than last quarter & that 3Q earnings should be strong.