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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (28932)	9/7/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Jd, The new chips, which it said form the second generation of Rambus DRAMs, are produced using a 0.19 micron design rule and are 30 percent smaller than the conventional ones, Samsung said. The South Korean company, a flagship unit of the Samsung Group [SAGR.CN], said it aimed to sell some $250 million worth of the chips this year and more than $2 billion worth next year. Sounds like $30M in revenue for Rambus next year from Samsung, if my math is correct (at a 1.5% royalty). To make $.80 per share in earnings, they need about $20M in net income. Anyone have a guess how much revenue they'd have to generate to clear $20M? It looks from the last two years (after 9 months in each year) that Net Income is about 20% of Contract+Royalty Revenues (it came up from 18% in 1998 to 20% in 1999). So that would imply they'd need to get about $100M in revenues to get $20M in net income. Probably less since expenses shouldn't grow as quickly as revenues will. At $30M, Samsung would have to be about 30% of that total. Just random musings, Dave <edit: It looks as if I'm the 3rd or 4th muser on the topic. <G>>

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (28932)	9/8/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Jdaasoc, Thanks for the great news from Samsung. At $250M in sales I guess that translates to 1M 128Mbit modules - using the $250/module pricing. So maybe 1M Coppermines in Q4 as a ballpark - seems very credible to me. They also mention MORE than $2bn for next year. If we assume modules cost of $200 then thats maybe enough for 5-10M units (depending upon wether systems use 128 or 256Mb). Seems to me this MUST be bullish for the stock tomorrow. Wait and see I guess. Good luck longs, Kash