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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (40023)	9/7/1999 11:49:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Keith, there were 23m at the beginning of 1999. Then 33m 6 months later. There are not enough parts, so I guess people are putting off getting a handset or buying a less desirable choice which might be GSM or TDMA. If CDMA added only 10m in the six months to June, it is quite an acceleration in growth rate to add 20m in the following 6 months, let alone the 28m you say. Well, I suppose it's possible but I really thought 53m was going to be a stretch back in February. I suspect everyone else thought it dreamland too and obviously the people who actually produce them did because they are short of parts in a big way. This is starting to look wild! Japan and USA, the two biggest economies on the planet are only just getting warmed up on cdmaOne. This could be quite a celebration for Qualcomm going into the 21st century at the end of 2000. Maybe that 13m isn't quite right and it was really less than that? I'll stick with 53,141,592 for the end of the year for now. Maybe there'll be some returns or something. Korea has been using cdmaOne handsets since April 1996 and millions of them since 1997, so they will start trading in their old ones for up to date ones with MSM3000, WWeb access and great battery life. Sales there could go crazy. Good grief, it's hard to think of numbers big enough. Mqurice

To: Keith Feral who wrote (40023)	9/8/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 152472

Didn't Lehman come out and announce that 13 million new CDMA subs were added in the 3rd quarter? Unfortunately I think that this premise might be a little off....I can almost guarantee that Lehman meant that the Q will sell 13m ASIC's this quarter. There is a HUGE discrepancy between ASIC's sold and new subs....During the first half of this year the Q sold 20m ASIC's while the latest CDG numbers only have 10.6m new subs being added. The best explanation I can come up with is that a portion of the ASIC's went into phones that were sold to existing customers (not new subs). Anyone have an idea how to estimate this? I have been estimating 10% of the existing subscriber base may be upgrading each quarter but this may be a little high. Another portion is probably in the pipeline preparing for the Christmas season. Slacker