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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (25105)	9/8/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

benkea-- well, if the US goes into recession or even depression, euros and yen are the last place i want to be. as i said previously, we catch a cold the rest of the planet gets a very bad flu. as for the bonds... a) capital loss is a paper loss. b) bond pricing mechanisms do not DESTROY your investment. its just repriced to take into account the higher value represented by interest payments. c) you buy the things for a high 'risk free' return on capital. you also buy them because they are probably the safest securities to be in even when all hell breaks lose. if we go into a serious recession, equities at current levels, especially some of the net stocks are going to be crushed. as for europe and the japanese... the recovery in japan has hardly begun and we are already acting as if its a fait accompli. thats simply not the case. any problems with the export market here, and japan starts that downward slide again. the BOE may have fired the warning shot today. for my money, the FED will not defend the dollar too agressively. they will leave that to the japanese. good luck to all, trey