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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (2066)	9/8/1999 8:09:00 AM
From: NAGINDAS J.O.PATTNI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

basically in USA IF YOU GET DATA FROM A WIRED ISP YOU DON'T PAY PER MINUTE CHARGES,IF YOU GET IT WIRELESS YOU PAY,THIS IS THE PARAMOUNT REASON FOR SLOW GROWTH,IN OTHER CONTRIES YOU PAY LESS FOR WIRELESS THAN FOR WIRED(ITALY TELECOM SPA WIRELESS 95 LIRAS PER MINUTE ,WIRED 175 LIRAS)STILL MISSING YOURS COMMENTS ON IDC. NAGIN

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (2066)	9/8/1999 3:14:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero, the reason I'm not much interested in total mobile market shares is because analogue is doomed and TDMA won't be very many years behind and certainly won't enjoy a high growth rate for long. GSM is the big monster and will be around for a good decade because it will only disappear as 3G comes trundling out eventually [though high data rates in cdmaOne networks and competition from cdmaOne will erode GSM sales - watch Aussie and NZ for example over the next 3 years] Eventually is a very important word for NTT and others dithering about waiting for 3G to be ready while cdmaOne competitors get the customers. GSM is a pretty good phone service. That's the hot system here. Analogue is bigger, but GSM is growing 100% per 6 months. 5 years from now, the investor's horizon which is where investors should be looking, GSM will be huge, cdmaOne will be next, TDMA will be struggling in odd places [it won't exist here - it will be removed] and analogue will be mostly replaced by cdmaOne or cdma2000 or VW40 if they can get it running. My focus on the CDMA vs GSM competition and the timing of 3G rollout is because that's where the outcomes which count will be. The most important issue for Q! and Nokia is the CDMA ASIC and handset market shares they manage to develop. As Motorola and Ericsson both found, having great economies of scale on plastic buying, solder, batteries, screens and labelling was insignificant compared with the right technology and the right designs. Having a great market share on analog and GSM was no help to Ericy. Now we hear a big chunk of their stock is on the block. What amazed me is that they didn't fire Lars Ramqvist 3 years ago when it was obvious that the 'we will deny them their request' was not the most customer centric statement to emanate from a company purporting to be a marketer and missing out on CDMA was not the brightest strategy either. Yes, fragmented standards in the USA, high prices, bundled minutes, high monthly charges, called party pays, price plans approved by the government, high roaming charges, have all made mobile phones relatively unattractive. Companies seem to think shell games are great for marketing. I think smokescreen shell games are not the best way to get customers to adopt a service. Accurate and cheap satisfaction of customer needs is the way to do it. Places with high mobile ownership will have slower growth rates than lower such as China, where they can have a 100% growth rate for several years. The USA could have 100% subscriber growth rate for only a year or two even if the phones and minutes were free, then they'd all have a subscription. Maurice