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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (25192)	9/8/1999 12:51:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert, you will probably know from my previous posts that i expect a blow-off rally to occur at some point...in fact it may have started already. the reason why i'm often sounding so negative recently, has to do with what i'm seeing: valuations are extremely stretched, interest rates have been rising, and the a/d line shows that there is a stealth bear market underway that is disguised by the indices. i concede that this may well go on for a while yet and the market could reach even more insane levels. however, i don't see why i should not point out that there are reasons to tread carefully right now; i got bearish on the Nikkei when it was around 36,000, and lo and behold, 2 months later it was at 40,000. nevertheless, my stance was by and large correct.it is better to lose out on the last 10% of upside than to get caught in a panic-type liquidation. regards, hb