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To: Kirk © who wrote (8431)	9/8/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk: re:< I MEASURE the DOWNSIDE RISK at $0 -then go up from there > It's hard to understand what you mean by your comment above. It's almost as if you're saying "trees grow to the sky","the market will continue to rise without significant interruption", or "I just take the ostrich (Alfred E. Newman - what me worry) approach and ignore downside risk - stocks for the long run." I would have thought downside risk might relate to a historical Standard Deviation around a historical Mean for a market average compared to current market levels. Alternatively, I could see one measuring current market averages against some computed fair value of the market (like Greenspan's model for calculating market overvaluation, or like some historical PE based on interest rate and inflation levels multiplied by future estimated normalized operating earnings of the S&P). Perhaps others might have a different method of computing downside risk for the market which they'd be willing to share here. P