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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (25270)	9/8/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

i agree. the only exception i take is that today can not be compared to '29. it can be compared, there are in fact many parallels. today is different insofar as a 30's style depression can probably be avoided, but at the very least i would expect a downturn in the stock market exceeding 30% and lasting a bit longer than your garden-variety correction to lead to a recession. whether the market can or can not crash is open to debate imo. don't forget that a record amount of households as well as foreign investors are in the market and all it takes is a few weeks of irrational panic. however, i agree that crashes are so rare as to scarcely merit consideration - they are exceptional, once-every-three-generations occurrences and impossible to predict. it is also an open question whether the Fed's attempts to 'shake the tree' as you put it will yield any appreciable results. frankly, i doubt it. the market seems to be daring the Fed to do something about the asset bubble, secretly convinced that it will chicken out. as far as i can tell this assessment of the Fed is cynical but 100% correct. hb hb