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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (25277)	9/8/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Mr. Shaeffer may well be right...pessimism has increased, and that is a good sign. however, there are valid reasons for this increase in pessimism as we all know. the Japanese bubble was also spotted in time by some, not least the WJS. and as it turned out, it was a bubble and it popped in the end. but Mr. Shaeffer's view jibes nicely with my expectation of a blow-off rally, as long term manias simply don't end with a trading range; it has never happened before. btw, the WJS DID like the market at Dow 10,000, as their celebratory issue that came out when this milestone was reached attests to...the front page article was extremely positive in it's description of the mighty bull. i note that Mr. Shaeffer didn't take this as a contrary indicator then, presumably because it wouldn't have jibed with his own (correct it must be said) view. the WJS btw is hardly 'the media' - it's a specialized financial publication. if the skepticism were evident in more mainstream publications i would attach more significance to it. i have one more criticism to add with regards to Bernie's onesidedness: during a televised investment conference a few months ago, he stated that he was bullish 'because everybody is asking when will this thing crash, not when will it double or triple'. well, that's clearly no longer true: the titles of books like "Dow 36,000" and "Dow 100,000", both of which were recently published are ample evidence for that. and the tripling of the Dow suggested in the first title is in fact one of the more modest recent projections - target price inflation is alive and well. yet these are not cited as contrary indicators by Bernie. he's biased, he only presents whatever supports his own view. note that i am not saying that he won't be proven right, he may well be, only that he tends to present facts very selectively. regards, hb