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To: JoeDi1213 who wrote (50636)	9/8/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

Interesting! The build in the West suggests to me that they are expecting the La Nina effects to be quite strong this year.

To: JoeDi1213 who wrote (50636)	9/8/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

From this afternoon's Doomberg: 9/8 12:56 Crude Oil Rises as Traders Anticipate API to Report Drop in U.S. Supplies By Mark Pittman Crude Oil Rises as Traders Anticipate Drop in U.S. Inventories New York, Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose 1 percent to a 23-month high for a second day on speculation that U.S. inventories will fall because cuts in production are ending a two- year glut. The American Petroleum Institute probably will report today that oil inventories fell for the 10th time in 12 weeks, bringing them close to the lowest level of the year, analysts said. Oil supplies last week were 5.6 percent lower than a year ago, and crude oil futures are up almost 90 percent this year. ``Prices at these levels have factored in an awful lot of good news and you have to justify this by a continual tightening of supplies,' said Bill O'Grady, vice president, director of fundamental futures research, at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. ``You have to feed a bull market every day.' Crude oil for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 25 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $22.86 a barrel. Prices rose 2.8 percent yesterday. In London, Brent crude oil for October rose as much as 21 cents, or 1 percent, to $22.19 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. This year's rally was fueled by output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, which have pledged to reduce supply by about 7 percent. OPEC, which produces about a third of the world's oil, will keep its pledge to restrain output by 4.3 million barrels a day through March 31, Rilwanu Lukman, secretary general, told a conference in Indonesia yesterday. The cutbacks have eased concern over a glut that caused prices to drop about 35 percent last year to a 12-year low. Cuts Continue A meeting of OPEC nations in Vienna on Sept. 22 is expected to keep the current output-cutting agreement in place, analysts said. OPEC made 95 percent of its promised output cuts in August, a Bloomberg survey said. A Bloomberg survey of analysts said crude oil inventories in the U.S. should drop this week by 1 million to 1.9 million barrels, or as much as 0.6 percent, from 317.66 million a week earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey. Six of seven analysts polled expect a decline. ``This week is pretty important because if we don't get a crude oil number of 2.5 to 3 million barrels down, this market starts taking on water,' O'Grady said. The U.S. Department of Energy predicted yesterday that crude oil traded in New York will average $22.78 to $23.28 a barrel through March. The agency expects 1.9 million barrels a day in additional oil will be pumped beginning in April after the production-cutting agreement expires in March. About 900,000 of that additional output will come from OPEC members, though it should all be sopped up by additional demand in those months, said Dave Costello, the economist in charge of the Short-Term Energy Outlook for the DOE's Energy Information Administration. ``We expect they're going to push production up in stages, not requiring a full meeting to act,' Costello said. ``The market is going to need the oil and they're going to produce some more.' Other areas also are expected to bump up production next year. The North Sea will add about 400,000 barrels a day in production, Mexico should increase by 100,000 barrels and China should expand output by 100,000 barrels a day, Costello said. Gasoline for October delivery rose as much as 0.65 cent, or 1 percent, to 67.15 cents a gallon. Heating oil for October delivery rose as much as 0.66 cents, or 1.1 percent, to 59.75 cents a gallon. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: JoeDi1213 who wrote (50636)	9/8/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: Ronald J. Clark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Joe, Do you have the data showing what last year's builds in nat gas storage were for the upcoming 3-4 weeks? Seems like I remember reading that last year's builds around this time were somewhat small. Thanks in advance. Ron Clark

To: JoeDi1213 who wrote (50636)	9/8/1999 9:03:00 PM
From: William JH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Comparing this year to 1998 wrt NatGas, here's part of a report from an analyst that I printed out back in March: "when crude prices began to tumble, residual fuel-oil prices went down faster than natural-gas prices. This led larger customers, including utilities, to switch to the cheaper oil, eating away about 3% of the natural-gas market last year." "We lost about 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of gas consumption in the latest period of oil-to-gas competition" he says. With the rise in oil prices, ":maybe we're starting to win that back."