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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (2091)	9/9/1999 6:31:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

This is geography more than technology - like so much in telecom markets. That's something people focusing exclusively on specs often skip. Nobody claims that TDMA has superior voice quality or good data capabilities - it doesn't. It loses both to CDMA and GSM on those counts. What it does have is continent-wide coverage in both North and South America, as well as heavy-weight champions like AT&T, BellSouth and national behemoths in Brazil, Mexico, etc. This matters a lot. People celebrating AT&T's quality problems forget that these problems were caused by the huge stampede to One Rate Digital plan - the demand simply exceeded all projections. Latin America crossed over to TDMA this year in a big way - more than 60% of phones shipped were TDMA in the first half of the year. This sudden shift from AMPS to TDMA is now feeding the TDMA network order explosion in the Americas. That's why Ericsson showed 40% mobile networks sales growth and Motorola showed 5%. Ericy took TDMA seriously, just as Mot, Lu and Nortel were shifting their attention to other standards. Future? Ericsson will enjoy mobile network sales growth well above all of its competitors, thanks to this phenomenon. God help the network divisions of Motorola and Nokia if all of these TDMA operators decide to boost their TDMA networks with data capability by using Ericsson gear. Maybe 3G is future, but the TDMA/South America connection is one of the defining issues of the next two years' profit growth picture. Future is nice - but the real network sales growth now is in TDMA. Tero