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To: TRCM who wrote (141718)	9/9/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 176387

TRCM, Looks like we just dodged a bullet. An economic columnist or author observed that when Economists are unanimous in predicting a specific outcome, then exactly the opposite will occur. But they have to be unanimous. Ian. If the labor markets are too "tight", then why are 24 of 26 primary dealers surveyed not calling for another hike in October...

To: TRCM who wrote (141718)	9/9/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 176387

TRCM,..Re:. but what will concern the Fed is wage push inflation We're really not seeing any alarming wage gains, either from the ECI or from the monthly jobs report, (bottom chart). Historically speaking! <g> stls.frb.org Also, recent rate hikes don't appear to have significantly affected GDP growth. Nov. '94 we had a 25 bp increase and again in Feb.'05 we got a 50 bp increase but according to the graph below, GDP didn't plummet. Also the decrease in GDP growth following the March '97 rate increase was very small. But from July '90 through Sept. '92 the Fed reduced the funds rate from 8% to 3% and you can see GDP grew nicely in this period. stls.frb.org Cheers, Lee