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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael M who wrote (54918)	9/9/1999 7:01:00 PM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 108807

Given recent unrest among Indonesians, would very visible activity by Indonesian military in E. Timor be likely to inspire national rallying or further domestic protest? I haven't noticed any evidence of pro-Timor sentiment elsewhere in Indonesia (which doesn't mean it doesn't exist), even in areas with their own secessionist notions. Resentment against foreign interference is a much stronger current, especially on Java. Recall that the Indonesian military lost a lot of respect and stature during the recent collapse of the Suharto regime; I suspect that they are ready and eager to try and take it back by presenting themselves as defenders of the nation against the evil Nekolim. Students and left groups will protest against anything the military does, but this is not going to help the Timorese much, and might even hurt them, by making it easier to paint Timorese resistance with the Commie brush, at least for domestic consumption. I have no idea if present Indonesian military likely to be able to sustain campaign in E. Timor if faced with stiff resistance. Would Indonesian people support coup or could we see chaos throughout the country? Stiff resistance from who? Falintil? Some of the bright boys will doubtless come up with the idea of smuggling arms to Falintil and encouraging them to resist. All I see coming out of this is further stalemate, at a level of violence sufficiently intense that after a few years of it there would be very little left of East Timor. Bringing arms into the area will not be easy; it is completely surrounded by Indonesian territory. I wonder if the U.S. Administration won't like to see this whole mess hidden under the carpet. Doubtless. But it won't be easy. Lot's of voices shrieking "something must be done", very few credible suggestions about what to do. So, who in the region would stand against Indonesia? Short list, huh? Any interference with sea lanes could have some nasty economic consequences for any east of Malacca Strait with a taste for oil. Short list indeed. Nobody on it at all. Possibly Australia, but they aren't considered part of the region (not by anyone else in the region, anyway), and I doubt that they would intervene if it seemed likely that Indonesia would resist. Malaysia - with a seat on the Security Council - will oppose any foreign intervention. Same with China. Even traditionally pro-western countries in the region will hesitate, as many of them have secessionist movements of their own to worry about, and don't want to set any precedents. The bottom line is that independence for East Timor is not in anybody's overriding national interest. Stability for Indonesia is. Which is bad news for the Timorese. The people promoting this referendum have taken a smoldering war and fanned it into full conflict, in support of a goal that nobody is willing to go all the way to see accomplished. They've raised the hopes of the Timorese and pushed them out on a limb, and now they are likely to be cut off and burned. The activists will have a great time sending the western democracies to the pillory for not standing up to the evil regime in Jakarta, but it won't help the Timorese much. The only remote chance I see would be to use a peacekeeping force composed entirely of Asians, or at least drawn from developing countries. No armed Nekolim on Indonesian soil. I've long believed that the UN should hire a few regiments of Gurkha mercenaries from Nepal as a permanent peacekeeping force; such a force would be ideal here. Restoring peace could be accomplished by superior force, at least in the towns, which would probably accomplish little more than pushing the violence into the countryside. Keeping peace would be a different story. Falinitl would not disarm; the militias would not disarm unless Falintil did. So what do we offer? A period of autonomy, a local government with representatives from both sides? Joint policing by Falintil and the militias? Nice dream. Xanana Gusmao is by all accounts a decent and reasonable human being, which is about the sole positive element I can see. I hope they can keep him alive.