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Non-Tech : Dorsey Wright & Associates. Point and Figure -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (196)	9/9/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 9427

John, I commented on hoarding in July. #reply-10351280 I am in agreement with Fleckenstein on one side of the story and think that the semis are going to get kicked in the groin in Q4. The other half of the story that Fleck doesn't look at is that, though we will have a general tech slowdown in Q4 due to Y2K lockdowns, this will cause pent up demand going into the new year. Unless there is a meltdown on the entire infrastructure on January 1, this pent up demand will be unleashed on the business world. In addition, the internet revolution, and it is a revolution, is still in the very nacent stages. 99.9999999% of the businesses out there have not learned how to use the internet, extranets and intranets to optimize their business models. This is about more than just the dotcoms. IMO the dotcoms are a blip on the screen of the true relevance of the "internet". You know that I am bearish on the market right now and through the end of the year, but there is no question that I will be buying like a madman in December. Tom Grub 200!!!

To: John Pitera who wrote (196)	9/9/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: wizzards wine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9427

John, Many thanks for posting the article...It clearly expresses many of the concerns that I have heard and been dealing with over the past many months... The Risk/Reward ratio is going more and more negative on a daily basis being in the market. Thus, I follow the indicators...but will likely recommend cutting the risk on the next market rally...JMHO Later Preston

To: John Pitera who wrote (196)	9/10/1999 7:20:00 AM
From: Hardline	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9427

The real truth about Fred Hickey. Fred Hickey was an auditor at my previous company, GTE, in the mid 80's. I was on the staff with him and he lost several thousands of staff members $ with his wonderful advise. Fortunately, I never followed any. His big fall was a company called Anacomp. He's been in Barron's a few times being interviewed by Kathryn Weller. His interviews always start out how he's been wrong about techs bull run. Eventually they will pull back and Chicken Little can claim victory. I agree valuations are a bit high, but when risk free bonds essentially trade at a 16.66 multiple, growth at 30X+ doesn't seem out of wack. His time comparisons lined up with corresponding interest rate multiples compared to market P/Es at the time would be interesting. 1990 was an industry age ago - no internet, no this no that......I don't buy it. I'd rather take advice from Stuart in the Ameritrade commercial - you know, the guy who copies his face on the Xerox machine - than Fred Hickey. He's the insane one. Hardline